An updated “Replacement Yield” model fit to catch and survey data for the South coast and for the West coast Kingklip resource of South Africa

Brandão, Anabela; Butterworth, Doug S

An updated “Replacement Yield” model fit to catch and survey data for the South coast and for the West coast Kingklip resource of South Africa

Report

2019

Abstract

A Bayesian “Replacement Yield” model is applied to the total annual catches and the survey abundance estimates for the South African kingklip resource off the South coast and that off the West coast over the 1986 to 2019 period. A posterior median replacement yield (RY) of 1 152 tonnes is estimated for the South coast and of 3 218 tonnes for the West coast; these values are suggested as upper bounds for the catch limit recommendations. Setting the catch limit at the 25th percentile of the posterior distribution results in values of 919 t and 2 986 t for the South and West coasts respectively. The corresponding posterior median rates of increase over the last five years are estimated at about -0.7% and 2% for the South and West coasts respectively.

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