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Assessing the performance, prospects, and priority of Africa's protected areas
(2026) Robson, Ashley Stephen; O'riain, Justin; Nattrass, Nicoli; Lindsey, Peter
Protected areas (PAs) are a critical tool for conserving Earth's natural ecosystems and have become the centrepiece of global conservation targets (e.g. Aichi 11; 30 by 30). With a vast PA network, Africa is positioned to contribute substantially to these targets. For this to happen, it is essential to understand the current performance of Africa's PAs, their prospects in the predicted rapid change of socioeconomic and climatic variables, and priorities for investment in the face of severe financial and technical constraints. To address these needs, I first used a questionnaire-based dataset on budget adequacy, management effectiveness, and threat severity to calculate a Conservation Area Performance Index for 516 PAs in savannah Africa. Relating this index to a proxy of biodiversity conservation – the population status of the African lion (Panthera leo) – I categorised 82% of surveyed conservation land as either failing to, or deteriorating in its ability to, effectively conserve biodiversity. I then examined human demographic, socio-economic, threat, management effectiveness, and biodiversity variables for a subset of 332 savannah PAs. Using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) framework, I found that levels of poverty, human density and industrial development around PAs were strongly related to the severity of anthropogenic threats to both wildlife and natural habitat. Lion population status was negatively affected by high threats to wildlife and natural habitats, however, effective PA management facilitated by state, NGO, and/or for-profit funding could alleviate these threats. Given predicted growth in Africa's population and shifts in economic activity, these findings underscore the need to address the socioeconomic drivers of biodiversity loss while enhancing PA effectiveness. Lastly, I used data on biodiversity irreplaceability, ecosystem service provision, connectivity, and human modification to calculate a composite conservation value index for Africa's PAs and, in doing so, identified priorities for investment in a resource-scarce environment. I found that the 147 most valuable PAs (6.8% of PAs) collectively accounted for 50% of the network's aggregated value, illustrating the need for targeted investment strategies that prioritise high-value areas. Based on these analyses, I conclude that Africa's PA network is in a severely compromised state that is likely to degrade in the future if strategic investment is not provided. I argue that Africa's contribution to global PA targets will only be achieved if funding for PAs is increased considerably, PAs are aligned with human development goals, and the most valuable PAs are secured before they collapse.
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Open Access
Validity of electrocardiogram for detecting left ventricular hypertrophy in younger South African patients
(2026) Robertson, Gordon; Jones, Erika; Cupido, Blanche
Aim
The aim of this study is to compare ECG criteria for LVH on ECG to transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) defined-LVH in patients with hypertension between the ages of 18 and 45 years.
Methods
This study was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of patients (ages 18 to 45 years old) with hypertension attending the Hypertension Clinic in a tertiary medical center in Cape Town, South Africa. Patients who had electrocardiograms (ECG) and transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) data were collected. TTE was used as the gold standard for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and various common ECG criteria for LVH were compared: Sokolow-Lyon, Obesity-adjusted Sokolow Lyon, Cornel Index, Cornell Product, R in aVL >11mm and R in V4-V6 >25mm. The data were analysed in two subgroups: younger (age 18 to 30 years) and older (31 to 45 years). Results This study included 71 participants with a median age of 30.8 years (54% male), the younger subgroup had 33 participants and the older sub-group had 38 participants. LVH was present on TTE in 51% of participants. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for any ECG criteria being positive in a patient aged 18 to 45 years with TTEdefined LVH was 67%, 46%, 56% and 57% respectively. The following ECG criteria had very good specificity: R in aVL (97%), Cornell index (97%), Cornell Product (89%), R in V4-V6 (86%) and Sokolow-Lyon (77%). The sensitivities were poor with Cornell product (25%), R in aVL >11mm (14%) and R in V4-V6 >25mm (19%). The criteria with better sensitivities were Sokolow-Lyon (50%) and Obesity-adjusted Sokolow-Lyon (58%). The criterion R in V4-V6 >25mm had an exceptionally poor PPV of 17% in the younger age group.
Conclusion
The commonly used ECG criteria have poor sensitivities and therefore are not useful for screening for LVH. The obesity adjusted Sokolow-Lyon criteria did improve sensitivity slightly (50 to 58%) with a significant reduction in specificity (77% to 54%). The R in V4-V6 >25mm criterion performed poorly in the younger age group due to a large number of false positives and cannot be used for assessing presence of LVH in younger patients. This study showed that patients aged 18 to 45 years with a positive Cornell Index, Cornell product or R in aVL>11mm was very specific for LVH. In a resource constrained setting this could save cost by reducing the number of TTEs required to assess for hypertension mediated target organ damage (HMOD) in patients who do not have another indication for TTE.
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Open Access
An overview of the retail cigarette price landscape and response of prices to tax increases in Lesotho: evidence from African cigarette prices (ACP) data
(2026) Pheea, Beresi; Van Der Zee, Kirsten Thelma
This dissertation provides a landscape of cigarette prices in Lesotho, over the years 2016 to 2024, looking at both legal and illicit cigarettes. In addition, in 2023, a tobacco levy was implemented. The dissertation also investigates how the price landscape changed in response to this levy. I first assessed whether cigarette prices significantly differ by brand, packaging format, outlet type, and district. I subsequently estimated the availability of illicit prices in the sample. Lastly, I used a regression analysis to determine the impact of the tax increase on the real cigarette prices of premium, mid-priced and cheap brands in formal and informal outlets. I calculated the tax pass-through parameter to determine if the tobacco industry fully passed on the tax increase or if it was differentially shifted to consumers. I used the Minimum Legal Price (MLP) approach to assess the availability of illicit prices in the sample. For estimating the impact of the levy on real cigarette prices, I used the Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach using Namibia and South Africa as control groups. The results indicate that cigarette prices significantly differ by brand, packaging format, outlet type and district. Price differences between informal and formal outlets are large. Districts in the rural parts of the country have relatively higher average prices than for those in urban areas. In response to the tax increase, the results suggest that the tobacco industry undershifted the tax increase in all price segments, both in formal and informal outlets. The undershifting behaviour was relatively large in the economy segment. 19.3% of all prices collected in the sample were illicit, with most of these prices coming from regionally located producers. The availability of illicit cigarettes increased over time. The regression results reveal that the real prices of premium and mid-priced segments in the sample for Lesotho increased in both formal and informal outlets in response to the tax compared to those in the control groups. In contrast, the prices of regional brands significantly declined. This study recommends that Lesotho implement the cigarette minimum legal price because low prices attract people to smoke. Also, the country should ratify the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products and implement a track and trace system, and ban the sale of single cigarettes. The government should take strong action to these problems.
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Open Access
Drawn from memory: Animation, memory, and the construction of 'the real' in documentary filmmaking
(2026) Pentz, Mia; Cain, Julia
My short documentary, A Small Place (Pentz, 2025) , is the creative research component of my Master's in Documentary Arts, accompanied by this practice-led written explication. The 25-minute film follows Aletta and Dudley Wessels, long-time residents of Koiingnaas - a once-thriving, company-owned mining town on South Africa's West Coast, now left desolate following the closure of diamond mining operations. By making use of ‘overlay' animated sequences of their nostalgic recollections over stark present-day live-action visuals, I explore how both documentary storytelling and human memory are continuously reshaped by perspective, emotional context, and broader cultural narratives. In this explication, I critically reflect on A Small Place within an interdisciplinary framework that combines documentary film theory (Bruzzi, 2000; Nichols, 2017), animation studies (Ward, 2011; Honess Roe, 2013) and memory research (Halbwachs, 1992; Loftus & Davis, 2006). I argue that animation, specifically ‘overlay animation' through the lens of memory mapping, expands documentary's representational toolkit and highlights the reconstructed nature of documentary narratives and memory itself. Through an analysis of my film, A Small Place (Pentz, 2025) , as a case study, as well as two additional comparisons, Liyana (Kopp & Kopp, 2017) and William Kentridge's short film History of the Main Complaint (1996), I explore how animation can function as a tool for visualising subjective, emotional, and intangible aspects of human experience. Rather than undermining ideas of ‘actuality' or the ‘real,' the deliberate artifice of animation makes the creative interpretation inherent in documentary filmmaking visible. This transparency corresponds with Halbwachs's emphasis on the social construction of memory and aligns with Loftus's findings on the evolving character of recollection over time. Building on these theoretical perspectives, this explication foregrounds the parallels between recalling memories, documentary filmmaking, frame-by-frame animation, and the curated environment of company-owned mining towns such as Koiingnaas - each relying on narratives shaped by emotion, social context, and time. Thus, I pursue my central research aim - how animation can illuminate the reconstructed nature of both memory and documentary - while prompting a broader interrogation of where ‘the real' resides in our recollections and the institutional frameworks that govern them.
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Open Access
Profiling of patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy
(2026) Hoevelmann, Julian; Sliwa, Karen; Viljoen , Charle André
Peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among young women, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite advances in understanding the pathophysiology of the condition and treatment thereof, including the development of a disease specific therapeutic agent and novelties in heart failure (HF) therapy, recovery rates among patients with PPCM vary widely, influenced by factors that remain incompletely understood.