Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC

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dc.contributor.authorMarquard, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorMcCall, Bryce
dc.contributor.authorCaetano, Tara
dc.contributor.authorBurton, Jesse
dc.contributor.authorStevens, Luanne
dc.contributor.authorIreland, Gregory
dc.contributor.authorKeen, Samantha
dc.contributor.authorWinkler, Harald
dc.contributor.authorMerven, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorTatham, Julia
dc.contributor.authorCunliffe, Guy
dc.contributor.authorvon Blottnitz, Harro
dc.contributor.authorJooste Upadhyaya, Meagan
dc.contributor.authorNosrati-Ghods, Nosaibeh
dc.contributor.authorGogela, Usisipho
dc.contributor.authorde Kock, Savanha
dc.contributor.authorHughes, Alison
dc.contributor.authorGabin, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorMasenda, Joseph
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-28T11:32:40Z
dc.date.available2025-08-28T11:32:40Z
dc.date.issued2025-08-27
dc.description.abstractThis technical analysis has the primary objective of supporting the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) in its development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. The mitigation analysis is part of a broader set of analyses to support the NDC, including work on adaptation and loss and damage (undertaken by the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI)) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), and work on support requirements / provision by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). The analysis has been primarily undertaken by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT, with contributions from PRISM at UCT, the CSIR, and CRSES at the University of Stellenbosch. The goal of the analysis is to assess the following: South Africa’s international obligations with regard to the Paris Agreement; An assessment of what national mitigation contribution up to 2035 would constitute South Africa’s “fair share”; An assessment of the GHG emissions implications in 2035 of current mitigation and/or mitigation policies and plans; An assessment of what additional measures would be required to achieve additional mitigation outcomes in 2035; Additional analysis of the implementation requirements and just transition requirements for a representative GHG emissions outcome in 2035; Additional analysis on the impact of specific GHG emissions pathways on local air pollution; and Additional assessment of the reliability and GHG emissions outcome of electricity systems modelled in SATIMGE for specific GHG outcomes using other modelling frameworks; These are DRAFT results.
dc.identifier.apacitationMarquard, A., McCall, B., Caetano, T., Burton, J., Stevens, L., Ireland, G., ... Masenda, J. (2025). <i>Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC</i> Cape Town: Energy Systems Research Group. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationMarquard, Andrew, Bryce McCall, Tara Caetano, Jesse Burton, Luanne Stevens, Gregory Ireland, Samantha Keen, et al <i>Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC.</i> Cape Town: Energy Systems Research Group, 2025. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMarquard, A., McCall, B., Caetano, T., Burton, J., Stevens, L., Ireland, G., Keen, S. & Winkler, H. et al. 2025. <i>Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC</i>. Cape Town: Energy Systems Research Group. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638 .en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Report AU - Marquard, Andrew AU - McCall, Bryce AU - Caetano, Tara AU - Burton, Jesse AU - Stevens, Luanne AU - Ireland, Gregory AU - Keen, Samantha AU - Winkler, Harald AU - Merven, Bruno AU - Tatham, Julia AU - Cunliffe, Guy AU - von Blottnitz, Harro AU - Jooste Upadhyaya, Meagan AU - Nosrati-Ghods, Nosaibeh AU - Gogela, Usisipho AU - de Kock, Savanha AU - Hughes, Alison AU - Gabin, Matthew AU - Masenda, Joseph AB - This technical analysis has the primary objective of supporting the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) in its development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. The mitigation analysis is part of a broader set of analyses to support the NDC, including work on adaptation and loss and damage (undertaken by the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI)) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), and work on support requirements / provision by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). The analysis has been primarily undertaken by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT, with contributions from PRISM at UCT, the CSIR, and CRSES at the University of Stellenbosch. The goal of the analysis is to assess the following: South Africa’s international obligations with regard to the Paris Agreement; An assessment of what national mitigation contribution up to 2035 would constitute South Africa’s “fair share”; An assessment of the GHG emissions implications in 2035 of current mitigation and/or mitigation policies and plans; An assessment of what additional measures would be required to achieve additional mitigation outcomes in 2035; Additional analysis of the implementation requirements and just transition requirements for a representative GHG emissions outcome in 2035; Additional analysis on the impact of specific GHG emissions pathways on local air pollution; and Additional assessment of the reliability and GHG emissions outcome of electricity systems modelled in SATIMGE for specific GHG outcomes using other modelling frameworks; These are DRAFT results. CY - Cape Town DA - 2025-08-27 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation KW - SATMGE KW - Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) KW - emissions target KW - 2035 KW - energy-economy-emissions model KW - decarbonisation KW - energy system pathways KW - Paris Agreement KW - international climate obligations KW - mitigation policies and plans KW - NDC implementation requirements KW - emissions projections KW - energy-emission scenario analysis LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PP - Cape Town PY - 2025 T1 - Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC TI - Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationMarquard A, McCall B, Caetano T, Burton J, Stevens L, Ireland G, et al. Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. 2025 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41638en_ZA
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEnergy Systems Research Group
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Chemical Engineering
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.locationCape Town
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectgreenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation
dc.subjectSATMGE
dc.subjectNationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
dc.subjectemissions target
dc.subject2035
dc.subjectenergy-economy-emissions model
dc.subjectdecarbonisation
dc.subjectenergy system pathways
dc.subjectParis Agreement
dc.subjectinternational climate obligations
dc.subjectmitigation policies and plans
dc.subjectNDC implementation requirements
dc.subjectemissions projections
dc.subjectenergy-emission scenario analysis
dc.titleDraft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC
dc.typeReport
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