Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC

Marquard, Andrew; McCall, Bryce; Caetano, Tara; Burton, Jesse; Stevens, Luanne; Ireland, Gregory; Keen, Samantha; Winkler, Harald; Merven, Bruno; Tatham, Julia; Cunliffe, Guy; von Blottnitz, Harro; Jooste Upadhyaya, Meagan; Nosrati-Ghods, Nosaibeh; Gogela, Usisipho; de Kock, Savanha; Hughes, Alison; Gabin, Matthew; Masenda, Joseph

Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC

Report

2025-08-27

Publisher

Energy Systems Research Group

Department

Department of Chemical Engineering

Faculty

Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment

License

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Abstract

This technical analysis has the primary objective of supporting the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) in its development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. The mitigation analysis is part of a broader set of analyses to support the NDC, including work on adaptation and loss and damage (undertaken by the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI)) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), and work on support requirements / provision by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). The analysis has been primarily undertaken by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT, with contributions from PRISM at UCT, the CSIR, and CRSES at the University of Stellenbosch. The goal of the analysis is to assess the following: South Africa’s international obligations with regard to the Paris Agreement; An assessment of what national mitigation contribution up to 2035 would constitute South Africa’s “fair share”; An assessment of the GHG emissions implications in 2035 of current mitigation and/or mitigation policies and plans; An assessment of what additional measures would be required to achieve additional mitigation outcomes in 2035; Additional analysis of the implementation requirements and just transition requirements for a representative GHG emissions outcome in 2035; Additional analysis on the impact of specific GHG emissions pathways on local air pollution; and Additional assessment of the reliability and GHG emissions outcome of electricity systems modelled in SATIMGE for specific GHG outcomes using other modelling frameworks; These are DRAFT results.