Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the impacts of sea level rise in Cape Town, South Africa

Taukoor, Sheveenah  Sunnassee

Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the impacts of sea level rise in Cape Town, South Africa

Master Thesis

2018

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Oceanography

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Sea level rise is highly interdisciplinary and its study entails not only oceanography, but other fields such as geomatics, climatology and geology. In this study we relied on the tools from geomatics to produce sea level rise maps in order to assess the vulnerability of the coastline of Cape Town, South Africa. After generating a DEM of a spatial resolution of 2 m from LiDAR point cloud data, we made use of GIS to design 4 sea level rise scenarios based on the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios from the IPCC. Among the findings, it was found that 2.16 – 3.09 km² of land would be potentially inundated by 2100. The main receptors which were identified were sandy beaches, rocky shores and built-up land. Permanent inundation would possibly change the appeal and the nature of the beaches and affect the tourism industry. Hence the coastline requires immediate attention as it is one of the most valuable assets in the tourism industry. Tidal effect and storm surge effect were also identified as additional factors which brought temporary changes to the sea level in Cape Town. These impacts were further investigated in 8 coastal suburbs (Tableview, Woodbridge Island, Paarden Eiland, Foreshore, Sea Point, Glencairn, Fish Hoek and Strand.) Suitable adaptation strategies including hard protection measures (e.g groynes, sea walls, barriers) and soft protection measures (e.g beach nourishment) were also proposed for these 8 suburbs.

Keywords

Oceanography

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