The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa

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dc.contributor.advisorLeibbrandt, Murrayen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCassim, Rashaden_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-17T12:59:57Z
dc.date.available2015-02-17T12:59:57Z
dc.date.issued1999en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThis thesis is anchored in policy developments in the Southern African region, including the imminent conclusion of a Southern Africa free-trade agreement (FTA). The major question addressed in the thesis is whether trade integration is achievable and desirable. It does not take for granted that a FTA will automatically induce more trade in the region. The research focuses primarily on trade potential in Southern Africa but also attempts to define why growth in intra-regional trade is not an important objective in its own right. A major aim of this thesis is to quantify the factors that are likely to influence trade growth in Southern Africa. The thesis puts forward a case for more attention to be paid to fundamental structural factors that will determine the scope and success of any regional integration initiative. Various methodologies are employed including an applied review of theoretical work, an analysis and appraisal of current Southern African work and, finally, the estimation of a cross-sectional gravity model of trade. This estimation relies on Tobit maximum likelihood procedures, rather than standard OLS methods. The model uses various data sources, primarily from the IMF and the World Bank. The gravity model examines how the reduction of trade-transaction costs, the level of development and the size of an economy influences trade potential amongst countries. In the thesis, prominence is given to the interpretation of the model and its policy implications. A major finding is that fundamental structural and economic factors such as the transaction costs of trading, the growth paths of economies and changes in per capita income should be the focus of regional integration rather than trade policy in its own right. The empirical results show that intra-regional trade in SADC is not low by international standards. When compared to regions such as SACU or Mercusor, actual South African exports are higher than estimated potential exports. However, the model indicates low trade volumes for combinations of countries in the SADC region. In particular, there is increasing scope of non-SACU countries to increase their exports to South Africa.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationCassim, R. (1999). <i>The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12508en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationCassim, Rashad. <i>"The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12508en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationCassim, R. 1999. The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Cassim, Rashad AB - This thesis is anchored in policy developments in the Southern African region, including the imminent conclusion of a Southern Africa free-trade agreement (FTA). The major question addressed in the thesis is whether trade integration is achievable and desirable. It does not take for granted that a FTA will automatically induce more trade in the region. The research focuses primarily on trade potential in Southern Africa but also attempts to define why growth in intra-regional trade is not an important objective in its own right. A major aim of this thesis is to quantify the factors that are likely to influence trade growth in Southern Africa. The thesis puts forward a case for more attention to be paid to fundamental structural factors that will determine the scope and success of any regional integration initiative. Various methodologies are employed including an applied review of theoretical work, an analysis and appraisal of current Southern African work and, finally, the estimation of a cross-sectional gravity model of trade. This estimation relies on Tobit maximum likelihood procedures, rather than standard OLS methods. The model uses various data sources, primarily from the IMF and the World Bank. The gravity model examines how the reduction of trade-transaction costs, the level of development and the size of an economy influences trade potential amongst countries. In the thesis, prominence is given to the interpretation of the model and its policy implications. A major finding is that fundamental structural and economic factors such as the transaction costs of trading, the growth paths of economies and changes in per capita income should be the focus of regional integration rather than trade policy in its own right. The empirical results show that intra-regional trade in SADC is not low by international standards. When compared to regions such as SACU or Mercusor, actual South African exports are higher than estimated potential exports. However, the model indicates low trade volumes for combinations of countries in the SADC region. In particular, there is increasing scope of non-SACU countries to increase their exports to South Africa. DA - 1999 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 1999 T1 - The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa TI - The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12508 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/12508
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationCassim R. The determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 1999 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12508en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Economicsen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherEconomicsen_ZA
dc.titleThe determinants of intra-regional trade in Southern Africaen_ZA
dc.typeDoctoral Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelDoctoral
dc.type.qualificationnamePhDen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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