The potential effect of an HIV/AIDS vaccine in South Africa
Journal Article
2007
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South African Actuarial Journal
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV/AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.
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Reference:
Johnson, L. F., & Dorrington, R. E. (2007). The potential effect of an HIV/AIDS vaccine in South Africa. South African Actuarial Journal, 7(1), 49-72.