Mathematical modelling and risk management in deregulated electricity markets

Davis, Stephen

Mathematical modelling and risk management in deregulated electricity markets

Master Thesis

2005

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Statistical Sciences

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

In this thesis we aim to explore how electricity generation companies cope with the transition to a competitive environment in a newly deregulated electricity industry. Analyses and discussions are generally performed from the perspective of a Generator/Producer, otherwise they are undertaken with respect to the market as a whole. The techniques used for tackling the complex issues are diverse and wide-ranging as ascertained from the existing literature on the subject. The global ideology focuses on combining two streams of thought: the production optimisation and equilibrium techniques of the old monopolistic, cost-saving industry and; the new dynamic profit-maximising and risk-mitigating competitive industry. Financial engineering in a new and poorly understood market for electrical power must now take place in conjunction with - yet also constrained by - the physical production and distribution of the commodity.

Keywords

Operations Research

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