Assessing the performance, prospects, and priority of Africa's protected areas

Robson, Ashley Stephen

Assessing the performance, prospects, and priority of Africa's protected areas

Thesis / Dissertation

2026

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Biological Sciences

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) are a critical tool for conserving Earth's natural ecosystems and have become the centrepiece of global conservation targets (e.g. Aichi 11; 30 by 30). With a vast PA network, Africa is positioned to contribute substantially to these targets. For this to happen, it is essential to understand the current performance of Africa's PAs, their prospects in the predicted rapid change of socioeconomic and climatic variables, and priorities for investment in the face of severe financial and technical constraints. To address these needs, I first used a questionnaire-based dataset on budget adequacy, management effectiveness, and threat severity to calculate a Conservation Area Performance Index for 516 PAs in savannah Africa. Relating this index to a proxy of biodiversity conservation – the population status of the African lion (Panthera leo) – I categorised 82% of surveyed conservation land as either failing to, or deteriorating in its ability to, effectively conserve biodiversity. I then examined human demographic, socio-economic, threat, management effectiveness, and biodiversity variables for a subset of 332 savannah PAs. Using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) framework, I found that levels of poverty, human density and industrial development around PAs were strongly related to the severity of anthropogenic threats to both wildlife and natural habitat. Lion population status was negatively affected by high threats to wildlife and natural habitats, however, effective PA management facilitated by state, NGO, and/or for-profit funding could alleviate these threats. Given predicted growth in Africa's population and shifts in economic activity, these findings underscore the need to address the socioeconomic drivers of biodiversity loss while enhancing PA effectiveness. Lastly, I used data on biodiversity irreplaceability, ecosystem service provision, connectivity, and human modification to calculate a composite conservation value index for Africa's PAs and, in doing so, identified priorities for investment in a resource-scarce environment. I found that the 147 most valuable PAs (6.8% of PAs) collectively accounted for 50% of the network's aggregated value, illustrating the need for targeted investment strategies that prioritise high-value areas. Based on these analyses, I conclude that Africa's PA network is in a severely compromised state that is likely to degrade in the future if strategic investment is not provided. I argue that Africa's contribution to global PA targets will only be achieved if funding for PAs is increased considerably, PAs are aligned with human development goals, and the most valuable PAs are secured before they collapse.

Keywords

biological sciences

Reference:

Collections

PhD / Doctoral

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