Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions

Simple item page
dc.contributor.advisorSoko, Millsen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGordon, Adam Victoren_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-30T06:43:24Z
dc.date.available2014-12-30T06:43:24Z
dc.date.issued2013en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractScenario planning has steadily grown to become a significant part of business and organisational foresight processes, particularly where planning situations demand approaches beyond traditional forecasting, due to extent of uncertainty variables or length of future time under consideration. However, despite general consensus as to the importance of the scenario approach in general, and rapid growth in both theory and practice in the field, fundamental questions remain over which situations are most tractable to scenario planning and why; and, in the face of uneven success in application, which among an apparent myriad scenario planning approaches best serves different planning situations, or organisations holding different goals. This dissertation makes an intervention into this problem, investigating to what extent scenario planning projects can be separated by underlying project purpose, and, based on original primary case studies and case-based structured interviews, finds that two meta-categories of purpose exist, which are here referred to as 'adaptive' and 'visionary-advocacy' purposes. It is argued that a purpose-based distinction of scenario modes provides part-explanation of the effective basis, or absence thereof, of scenario work for different situations - a basis which is achieved via congruence of scenario project purpose with (a) underlying organisational planning purpose, and (b) the extent of organisational influence over external conditions, including macro-variables of change, that constrain it. These findings suggest additions to scenario method as currently understood, particularly pre-project analysis (audits) of both an organisation's planning purpose and its external constraint conditions, to ascertain the presence of absence of necessary congruencies, so as to inform adoption of the purpose platform (and allied methodology) more likely to produce successful outcomes in application.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationGordon, A. V. (2013). <i>Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationGordon, Adam Victor. <i>"Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationGordon, A. 2013. Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Gordon, Adam Victor AB - Scenario planning has steadily grown to become a significant part of business and organisational foresight processes, particularly where planning situations demand approaches beyond traditional forecasting, due to extent of uncertainty variables or length of future time under consideration. However, despite general consensus as to the importance of the scenario approach in general, and rapid growth in both theory and practice in the field, fundamental questions remain over which situations are most tractable to scenario planning and why; and, in the face of uneven success in application, which among an apparent myriad scenario planning approaches best serves different planning situations, or organisations holding different goals. This dissertation makes an intervention into this problem, investigating to what extent scenario planning projects can be separated by underlying project purpose, and, based on original primary case studies and case-based structured interviews, finds that two meta-categories of purpose exist, which are here referred to as 'adaptive' and 'visionary-advocacy' purposes. It is argued that a purpose-based distinction of scenario modes provides part-explanation of the effective basis, or absence thereof, of scenario work for different situations - a basis which is achieved via congruence of scenario project purpose with (a) underlying organisational planning purpose, and (b) the extent of organisational influence over external conditions, including macro-variables of change, that constrain it. These findings suggest additions to scenario method as currently understood, particularly pre-project analysis (audits) of both an organisation's planning purpose and its external constraint conditions, to ascertain the presence of absence of necessary congruencies, so as to inform adoption of the purpose platform (and allied methodology) more likely to produce successful outcomes in application. DA - 2013 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2013 T1 - Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions TI - Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationGordon AV. Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies, 2013 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Management Studiesen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherBusiness Administrationen_ZA
dc.titleAdaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditionsen_ZA
dc.typeDoctoral Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelDoctoral
dc.type.qualificationnamePh Den_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
thesis_com_2013_gordon_adam.pdf
Size:
3.01 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
PhD / Doctoral