A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture

Van Vuuren, Detlef P; Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C; Ebi, Kristie L; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Timothy R; Edmonds, Jae; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture

Journal Article

2014

Journal Title

Climatic Change

Link to Journal

http://link.springer.com/journal/10584

Publisher

Springer

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Energy Research Centre

Faculty

Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment

Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.