Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa

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dc.contributor.advisorLennard, Chrisen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorTadross, Marken_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorHewitson, Bruceen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Izidine S de Sousaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-05T07:22:26Z
dc.date.available2016-02-05T07:22:26Z
dc.date.issued2015en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical referencesen_ZA
dc.description.abstractChanges in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM).en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationPinto, I. S. d. S. (2015). <i>Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationPinto, Izidine S de Sousa. <i>"Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPinto, I. 2015. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa AB - Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa TI - Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationPinto ISdS. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2015 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Environmental and Geographical Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherEnvironmental Scienceen_ZA
dc.subject.otherClimate Changeen_ZA
dc.subject.otherclimate modelsen_ZA
dc.titleFuture changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africaen_ZA
dc.typeDoctoral Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelDoctoral
dc.type.qualificationnamePhDen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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