Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study
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2017
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PLoS Medicine
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Abstract
Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.
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Johnson, L.F., May, M.T., Cornell, M., Boulle, A., Egger, M. & Davies, M. 2017. Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study. PLoS Medicine. 14(12):e1002468 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34712