Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

Journal Article

2017

Permanent link to this Item
http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34712
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JohnsonLeighF_Estimating_impa_2017.pdf (1.59 MB)
Authors
Johnson, Leigh F
May, Margaret T
Cornell, Morna
Boulle, Andrew
Egger, Matthias
Davies, Mary-Ann
Journal Title

PLoS Medicine

Link to Journal
https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002468
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Publisher
Department
Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research
Faculty
Faculty of Health Sciences
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Series
Abstract
Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.
Description
Keywords
Death rates
HIV
HIV epidemiology
Antiretroviral therapy
South Africa
HIV diagnosis and management
AIDS
Tuberculosis

Reference:

Johnson, L.F., May, M.T., Cornell, M., Boulle, A., Egger, M. & Davies, M. 2017. Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study. PLoS Medicine. 14(12):e1002468 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34712

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