Voting in the 1994 general election : the role of race, unemployment and perceptions of violence in the Western Cape

Africa, Cherrel Jane

Voting in the 1994 general election : the role of race, unemployment and perceptions of violence in the Western Cape

Thesis / Dissertation

1996

Abstract

There has been an ongoing debate about South African voters' choices in the 1994 general election. The most contested issue in this debate is the role played by racial or ethnic identities. Some authors argue that race was the main determinant of voting behaviour. while others argue that it played an indirect role. This study focuses on the behavioural motivations of voters living in the Western Cape. Unemployment was perceived by voters in the Western Cape as being one of the most important problems facing the region at the time. Violence was also cited as a serious concern. Thus, the behavioural motivations of • these voters will be examined by looking primarily at the effect of unemployment (an issue which affects people of all races) as well as perceptions of violence on voting behaviour. The data used for this assessment is derived from four large quantitative studies and a set of 9 in-depth interviews with unemployed people. T'hree surveys gathered information on citizen's voting behaviour and political attitudes. These studies were conducte4 by the Institute for Multi-party Democracy (MPD), in December 1993 and February 1994 and by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) in October 1994. The fourth survey was done by the Southern African Labour and Development Research Unit for the World Bank in December 1993. This survey investigated poverty levels in South Africa and is used only to a limited extent for a profile ofunemployment. The respondents for the in-depth interviews were found using "employment wanted" columns in the press. These interviews examined respondents expectations' of the elections, reasons for party support, their views of the employment policies of the parties they supported and their fears about the elections. In order to make an assessment Qf the role played by unemployment, a comparison of party support among unemployed and employed voters is done. • This is supplemented by an examination of the role of the campaigns, responses to the campaigns, the issues which respondents regarded as important (particularly violence) and their reasons for supporting particular parties. Hence, the attitudes of unemployed and employed voters towards a range of issues are compared. The in-depth interviews were used to go beyond the quantitative data and gain better insight into the trends and patterns in the quantitative data. The findings show that although unemployment was regarded as important by voters, it failed to cause unemployed people to vote differently from employed people. There was no correlation between employment status and party preference, as there was with race and voting choice. Political parties did not secure extra votes.because of their unemployment policies. The qualitative data demonstrates that while unemployme_nt may not have caused unemployed black people, for example, to vote differently to employed black people, voting behaviour was not simply determined by racial identities. There was no direct causal link between the respondents' racial identities and voting choices. Race played a more indirect role. It served as a reference point which shaped their beliefs rather than a factor which motivated particular behaviour. The qualitative data therefore supports the general conclusions drawn by Mattes who uses detailed quantitative data to demonstrate that race was not the main determinant of voting behaviour. Campaign information presented by the parties. past experiences (which affected the assimilation of campaign information ) and the way in which parties were perceived were crucial factors in the way Western Cape voters chose to vote in South Africa's first non-racial elections. It is the finding of this study that the issue of violence played a very important role in shaping voters' choices. Violence was listed as a particularly important concern by the respondents and tht largest grouping among them perceived the African National Congress (ANC) as the most likely to cause violence. As an important part of its campaign strategy, the National Party (NP) depicted the ANC as a violent and dangerous party. It seems therefore that a key factor in the victory of the NP and poor performance of the ANC in the Western Cape was voters' perceptions oflinks between violence and political parties.

Keywords

Elections

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