Browsing by Subject "Elections"

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    Kenya and the ICC: the politics of the 2007 post-election violence
    (2013) Fromet De Rosnay, Amandine; Seegers, Annette
    In December 2007, Kenya held a presidential election. The incumbent was Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU). His political opponent was Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The vote was peaceful and described by many in positive terms; that is, a continuation of the positive democratic transition that Kenya began toward the end of the 1990s. However, many in Kenya accused the government of foul play, when the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) delayed declaring a winner for two days. The ECK eventually declared Kibaki President, and rushed the swearing - in ceremony, skipping the stipulated 72 hours. Two days after declaring Kibaki president, Samuel Kivuitu, the chair of the ECK, admitted he did not know whether Kibaki had won the elections. He insisted that he had agreed to release the results and announce Kibaki as president, under pressure from above. Kenya then experienced its worst bout of violence since the Mau Mau rebellion, before independence. The Post - Election Violence (PEV) lasted two months. It was resolved following an agreement, the Kenya National and Reconciliation Dialogue (K N D R), negotiated by a Panel of Eminent Personalities. The fighting parties agreed to form a Government of National Unity (GNU), a Commission of Enquiry into the Post - Election Violence (CIPEV) and an Independent Review Commission on the General elections (Kriegler Commission). The GNU was to have Kibaki reinstated as President, to add the post of Prime Minister for Odinga, and was to undertake a reconciliation and accountability process, prosecuting perpetrators. This thesis seeks to determine what were the politics that led Kenya to prosecute those who bore greatest responsibility for the PEV. More specifically, what were the politics that resulted in selecting the ICC, as the court where individuals were going to be held accountable?
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    The Results of Election '04: Looking Back, Stepping Forward
    (2004) Piombo, Jessica
    It is undeniable that the electoral dominance of the ANC has been steadily increasing since 1994 at both national and provincial levels. The 2004 election will probably be remembered particularly for the fact that the ANC secured its Parliament of Hope, winning over two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly and the power to form the government in all nine provinces. In contrast to the ANC's consolidating hold on the electorate, the opposition's share of the vote has steadily declined and fragmented since 1994. What do the 2004 electoral returns mean in the context of the evolution of politics and partisan competition in South Africa over the past decade? What do trends in voter registration, turnout and electoral violence say about the consolidation of democracy in South Africa? This paper traces trends in South African electoral politics over the past decade, with particular emphasis on the 2004 election results and the increasing normalisation of democracy and what that means for the character of South African party politics. I argue that trends in voter turnout and declining electoral violence could be viewed as a process of democratic maturation, rather than solely a symptom of widespread disengagement from the political system. The paper assesses trends in electoral outcomes at the national and provincial levels and discusses implications for democratic stability. In light of the 2004 elections, the paper also assesses the composition of the national parliament and Cabinet in terms of retention of members with experience in governance and trends from 1994 to 2004. Finally, the paper assesses what implications all these trends have for the consolidation of democracy in South Africa.
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    Voting in the 1994 general election : the role of race, unemployment and perceptions of violence in the Western Cape
    (1996) Africa, Cherrel Jane; Dr Jeremy Seekings
    There has been an ongoing debate about South African voters' choices in the 1994 general election. The most contested issue in this debate is the role played by racial or ethnic identities. Some authors argue that race was the main determinant of voting behaviour. while others argue that it played an indirect role. This study focuses on the behavioural motivations of voters living in the Western Cape. Unemployment was perceived by voters in the Western Cape as being one of the most important problems facing the region at the time. Violence was also cited as a serious concern. Thus, the behavioural motivations of • these voters will be examined by looking primarily at the effect of unemployment (an issue which affects people of all races) as well as perceptions of violence on voting behaviour. The data used for this assessment is derived from four large quantitative studies and a set of 9 in-depth interviews with unemployed people. T'hree surveys gathered information on citizen's voting behaviour and political attitudes. These studies were conducte4 by the Institute for Multi-party Democracy (MPD), in December 1993 and February 1994 and by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) in October 1994. The fourth survey was done by the Southern African Labour and Development Research Unit for the World Bank in December 1993. This survey investigated poverty levels in South Africa and is used only to a limited extent for a profile ofunemployment. The respondents for the in-depth interviews were found using "employment wanted" columns in the press. These interviews examined respondents expectations' of the elections, reasons for party support, their views of the employment policies of the parties they supported and their fears about the elections. In order to make an assessment Qf the role played by unemployment, a comparison of party support among unemployed and employed voters is done. • This is supplemented by an examination of the role of the campaigns, responses to the campaigns, the issues which respondents regarded as important (particularly violence) and their reasons for supporting particular parties. Hence, the attitudes of unemployed and employed voters towards a range of issues are compared. The in-depth interviews were used to go beyond the quantitative data and gain better insight into the trends and patterns in the quantitative data. The findings show that although unemployment was regarded as important by voters, it failed to cause unemployed people to vote differently from employed people. There was no correlation between employment status and party preference, as there was with race and voting choice. Political parties did not secure extra votes.because of their unemployment policies. The qualitative data demonstrates that while unemployme_nt may not have caused unemployed black people, for example, to vote differently to employed black people, voting behaviour was not simply determined by racial identities. There was no direct causal link between the respondents' racial identities and voting choices. Race played a more indirect role. It served as a reference point which shaped their beliefs rather than a factor which motivated particular behaviour. The qualitative data therefore supports the general conclusions drawn by Mattes who uses detailed quantitative data to demonstrate that race was not the main determinant of voting behaviour. Campaign information presented by the parties. past experiences (which affected the assimilation of campaign information ) and the way in which parties were perceived were crucial factors in the way Western Cape voters chose to vote in South Africa's first non-racial elections. It is the finding of this study that the issue of violence played a very important role in shaping voters' choices. Violence was listed as a particularly important concern by the respondents and tht largest grouping among them perceived the African National Congress (ANC) as the most likely to cause violence. As an important part of its campaign strategy, the National Party (NP) depicted the ANC as a violent and dangerous party. It seems therefore that a key factor in the victory of the NP and poor performance of the ANC in the Western Cape was voters' perceptions oflinks between violence and political parties.