An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

Doctoral Thesis


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University of Cape Town

The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. South Africa in the 1980's will be faced by a complex energy planning problem. Politically, socially and economically the country is in a process of significant change, resulting in rapidly increasing overall energy requirements and more selective demand for specific types and grades of energy carrier. Relatively large deposits of coal and uranium exist - providing opportunities for earning foreign exchange now coupled, unfortunately, with the depletion of those resources in the future. Many questions relating to energy, and vital to South Africa, must be resolved in the next few years, particularly concerning the following: - level of coal and uranium exports; - level of energy independence; - domestic synthetic fuels programme; - energy conservation policies; - alternative technology implementation. Energy planning in the past has been inadequate because of its segregated approach in treating each energy carrier, its lack of economic and technological inputs and its inability to highlight sensitive and crucial aspects of the energy sector in the economy.

Bibliography: p. 211-234.