Browsing by Subject "Paris Agreement"

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    Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC
    (Energy Systems Research Group, 2025-08-27) Marquard, Andrew; McCall, Bryce; Caetano, Tara; Burton, Jesse; Stevens, Luanne; Ireland, Gregory; Keen, Samantha; Winkler, Harald; Merven, Bruno; Tatham, Julia; Cunliffe, Guy; von Blottnitz, Harro; Jooste Upadhyaya, Meagan; Nosrati-Ghods, Nosaibeh; Gogela, Usisipho; de Kock, Savanha; Hughes, Alison; Gabin, Matthew; Masenda, Joseph
    This technical analysis has the primary objective of supporting the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) in its development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. The mitigation analysis is part of a broader set of analyses to support the NDC, including work on adaptation and loss and damage (undertaken by the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI)) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), and work on support requirements / provision by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). The analysis has been primarily undertaken by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT, with contributions from PRISM at UCT, the CSIR, and CRSES at the University of Stellenbosch. The goal of the analysis is to assess the following: South Africa’s international obligations with regard to the Paris Agreement; An assessment of what national mitigation contribution up to 2035 would constitute South Africa’s “fair share”; An assessment of the GHG emissions implications in 2035 of current mitigation and/or mitigation policies and plans; An assessment of what additional measures would be required to achieve additional mitigation outcomes in 2035; Additional analysis of the implementation requirements and just transition requirements for a representative GHG emissions outcome in 2035; Additional analysis on the impact of specific GHG emissions pathways on local air pollution; and Additional assessment of the reliability and GHG emissions outcome of electricity systems modelled in SATIMGE for specific GHG outcomes using other modelling frameworks; These are DRAFT results.
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    Technical Analysis to Support the Adaptation Component of South Africa’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution
    (University of Cape Town, 2025) Taylor, Anna; Simpson, Nicholas; Sibanda, Darlington; Bhanye, Johannes; Trisos, Christopher; Moyo, Vuyisile; Matiza, Collins; Ouweneel, Birgitt; Cartwright, Anton; Blignaut, James
    Research teams in the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) and the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at the University of Cape Town carried out analyses pertaining to climate change adaptation and mitigation as technical support to government in developing South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2) under the Paris Agreement. This technical report presents the adaptation component of the work, reviewing key climate change risks and adaptation efforts to date, proposing seven priority adaptation goals, and estimating the costs and benefits of 36 identified adaptation options that, if implemented well, would make a significant contribution to realising the goals. The seven proposed adaptation goals are: (1) Adapt South Africa’s water and sanitation systems to drying conditions and drought and flood intensification, as water underpins human, plant and animal health and all economic and livelihood activities; (2) Enhance disaster risk management, healthcare and sanitation provision, especially in informal settlements, to reduce impacts of flooding and heat stress on most vulnerable households; (3) Upgrade critical transport infrastructure (roads, rail, ports) to maintain functioning under increased rainfall intensity, heat stress, wind speeds and storm surges; (4) Enhance nutritious food access and affffordability through support to agricultural and fifisheries producers and distributors in adapting to warmer and windier conditions and changes in rainfall; (5) Enhance climate services, with early warning and impact information made accessible to a wide range of users, tailored to different operational, language, gender, age and disability needs; (6) Enhance ecosystem-based adaptation to heat and water stress, protecting South Africa’s natural heritage, biodiversity and improving ecosystem functioning that underpins our cultural identity, food systems, human wellbeing and tourism economy; and (7) Capacitate all spheres of government to implement adaptation through enacting and enforcing all provisions of the Climate Change Act. There is a companion technical report presenting the mitigation component of the work.