Browsing by Author "Heinrich, G"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty
    (Elsevier, 2007) Heinrich, G; Howells, M I; Basson, L; Petrie, J G
    Appropriate energy–environment–economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Restricted
    Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty
    (Elsevier, 2007) Heinrich, G; Basson, L; Howells, M; Petrie, J
    Appropriate energy–environment–economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Policies and scenarios for Cape Town's energy future: options for sustainable city energy development
    (University of Cape Town, 2006) Winkler, H; Borchers, M; Hughes, A; Visagie, E; Heinrich, G
    This study examines a set of energy policy interventions, which can make a major contribution to sustainable development for the City of Cape Town – economically, environmentally and socially. Major energy savings can be made from modal shifts in the transport sector, and with efficient lighting. The savings make a contribution to economic development, by freeing up resources. The savings from energy efficiency also have important social benefits in energy savings, reducing energy bills for poor households. From an environmental point of view, implementing the city’s renewable energy target will have significant costs, but these can be partly off-set by selling carbon credits through the Clean Development Mechanism, and will result in indirect health benefits. Targeted interventions can reduce local air pollution, and help Cape Town become a leader in addressing greenhouse gas emissions. Apart from examining the social, economic and environmental dimensions of each policy, this paper compares policies to one another. Of particular interest for sustainable energy development are those policies which are viable in terms of costs, social benefits and the environment. Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs) in residential, commercial and government sectors and heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) in commerce and government sectors stand out as policies that have benefits from every angle. The paper builds on previous work done on the ‘state of energy’ for Cape Town and develops a tool that can paint a picture of what might happen to energy in the future. Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) modelling tool, a set of energy policies have been simulated.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Restricted
    Ranking power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under certainty
    (Elsevier, 2007) Heinrich, G; Basson, L; Cohen, B; Petrie, J; Howells, M
    Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions.