Ranking power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under certainty
Journal Article
2007
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Energy
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Elsevier
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions.
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Reference:
Heinrich, G., Basson, L., Cohen, B., Howells, M., & Petrie, J. (2007). Ranking and selection of power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under uncertainty. Energy, 32(12), 2350-2369.