Browsing by Author "Gabin, Matthew"

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    Draft Technical analysis to inform the development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC
    (Energy Systems Research Group, 2025-08-27) Marquard, Andrew; McCall, Bryce; Caetano, Tara; Burton, Jesse; Stevens, Luanne; Ireland, Gregory; Keen, Samantha; Winkler, Harald; Merven, Bruno; Tatham, Julia; Cunliffe, Guy; von Blottnitz, Harro; Jooste Upadhyaya, Meagan; Nosrati-Ghods, Nosaibeh; Gogela, Usisipho; de Kock, Savanha; Hughes, Alison; Gabin, Matthew; Masenda, Joseph
    This technical analysis has the primary objective of supporting the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) in its development of the mitigation component of South Africa’s second NDC. The mitigation analysis is part of a broader set of analyses to support the NDC, including work on adaptation and loss and damage (undertaken by the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI)) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), and work on support requirements / provision by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). The analysis has been primarily undertaken by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT, with contributions from PRISM at UCT, the CSIR, and CRSES at the University of Stellenbosch. The goal of the analysis is to assess the following: South Africa’s international obligations with regard to the Paris Agreement; An assessment of what national mitigation contribution up to 2035 would constitute South Africa’s “fair share”; An assessment of the GHG emissions implications in 2035 of current mitigation and/or mitigation policies and plans; An assessment of what additional measures would be required to achieve additional mitigation outcomes in 2035; Additional analysis of the implementation requirements and just transition requirements for a representative GHG emissions outcome in 2035; Additional analysis on the impact of specific GHG emissions pathways on local air pollution; and Additional assessment of the reliability and GHG emissions outcome of electricity systems modelled in SATIMGE for specific GHG outcomes using other modelling frameworks; These are DRAFT results.
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    Reducing the carbon footprint of the University of Cape Town: an energy systems approach
    (2024) Gabin, Matthew; von Blottnitz, Harro
    Universities are uniquely positioned to play a significant role in forging pathways to a sustainable future. As many of society's challenges are reflected in university systems, these can serve as useful testing grounds to inform interventions, such as emissions reduction strategies. As the University of Cape Town (UCT) has committed to several environmental sustainability goals, this dissertation investigates greenhouse gas emissions reduction pathways for UCT through an energy systems approach by constructing an energy systems simulation model to represent the institution's various proposed decarbonisation plans. The research built on UCT's series of carbon footprint reports and its proposed sustainability plans, focusing on electricity usage which required detailed data collection. This involved engaging with multiple stakeholders at different levels in order to construct an energy systems model on the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Platform) software. This dissertation specifically uses the LEAP model to conduct a scenario analysis on UCT's emissions reduction plans, while considering the drivers of the institution's energy demand. This dissertation assesses three scenarios and their impacts with regards to UCT's Scope 2 emissions: Scenario 1 studies the impact of the national grid decarbonising, Scenario 2 the impact of on-site electricity generation from solar power and, Scenario 3 the impact of implementing energy-efficiency measures to reduce the institution's overall energy demand (where each scenario is built on its predecessor). The results of the study found that the institution relies heavily on the national grid decarbonising to reach its sustainability commitments. Expected decarbonisation of the national grid could result in the institution's Scope 2 emissions being reduced by 7.5% by 2030 but accelerating thereafter for a reduction of 91.4% by 2050 (relative to 2019 emissions). In comparison, Scenario 2 would result in the institution's Scope 2 emissions being reduced by 15.1% by 2030 and growing to 97.6% by 2050 (relative to 2019 emissions). Finally, Scenario 3 would result in the institution's Scope 2 emissions being reduced by 24.5% by 2030, and by 97.9% by 2050 (relative to 2019 emissions). This dissertation found that, with the current proposed decarbonisation scenarios, that UCT is able to significantly reduce its Scope 2 emissions, but the window for meaningful own action is short-term as much of the expected reduction post 2030 is GBNMAT001 END 5069W iii from measures not implemented by the institution itself. A leading university should be leading, and not lagging society. The insights from this study have demonstrated the impact of scenario analysis on informing emissions reduction planning and importantly, provide a strong foundation in the amalgamated data sets on which future modelling work can be built.