Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks

dc.contributor.advisorKruger, Ryan
dc.contributor.authorGross, Eden
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-02T11:47:43Z
dc.date.available2023-03-02T11:47:43Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.date.updated2023-02-20T12:49:22Z
dc.description.abstractPractitioners and academics alike have applied the Black-Scholes model (or derivatives thereof) when pricing options practically since the introduction of the model in 1973. The recent coronavirus pandemic and the oil futures price crash of April 2020 have caused major markets to briefly switch to the less widely-known Bachelier model to price derivatives, as the model allows for negative strikes on the underlying. This study evaluates the predictive ability and accuracy of both the Bachelier model and the Black-Scholes model when pricing European call options on the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index using five different volatility estimation methods. Moreover, it then compares the forecasts of the two parametrised models to a deep feed-forward artificial neural network which is also used to price such options. Overall, the artificial neural network is statistically superior in its predictive ability relative to both of the parameterised models, and the Black-Scholes model is statistically superior in its predictive ability to the Bachelier model.
dc.identifier.apacitationGross, E. (2022). <i>Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks</i>. (). ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationGross, Eden. <i>"Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks."</i> ., ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationGross, E. 2022. Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks. . ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Master Thesis AU - Gross, Eden AB - Practitioners and academics alike have applied the Black-Scholes model (or derivatives thereof) when pricing options practically since the introduction of the model in 1973. The recent coronavirus pandemic and the oil futures price crash of April 2020 have caused major markets to briefly switch to the less widely-known Bachelier model to price derivatives, as the model allows for negative strikes on the underlying. This study evaluates the predictive ability and accuracy of both the Bachelier model and the Black-Scholes model when pricing European call options on the Standard &amp; Poor's (S&P) 500 Index using five different volatility estimation methods. Moreover, it then compares the forecasts of the two parametrised models to a deep feed-forward artificial neural network which is also used to price such options. Overall, the artificial neural network is statistically superior in its predictive ability relative to both of the parameterised models, and the Black-Scholes model is statistically superior in its predictive ability to the Bachelier model. DA - 2022_ DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Actuarial Science LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2022 T1 - Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks TI - Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationGross E. Option pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks. []. ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Management Studies, 2022 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/37156en_ZA
dc.language.rfc3066eng
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Management Studies
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerce
dc.subjectActuarial Science
dc.titleOption pricing and machine learning: a comparison of black-scholes, bachelier, and artificial neural networks
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationlevelMCom
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