Working Paper

2017-06-06

University of Cape Town

The global financial crisis and the subsequent uneven recovery have underscored the need for Africa’s resilience to output and other shocks originated in the rest of the world. A comparison of two regional economic communities – the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) – suggests that deeper intra-regional, and in particular intra-industry, trade ties have contributed to the EAC’s resilience to external output shocks. More broadly, intra-regional and intra-African trade with fast-growing economies, together with geographically diversified trade links, can strengthen the capacity of African countries to absorb global output shocks. Besides helping shield countries from external shocks, intra-regional trade also supports economic diversification and participation in regional value chains.

The authors thank Zorobabel Bicaba for contributions and Celine Allard, Daniel Gurara, Basil Jones, Albert Mafusire, and Andreas Wörgötter for comments that improved the paper. This paper is substantively modified from an earlier version, issued as AfDB Working Paper No. 198 and presented at the 2014 Congress of the International Economic Association and at the 2014 North American Meetings of the Econometric Society. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African Development Bank. This was paper was also published as IZA Discussion Paper No. 9205