Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process

dc.contributor.authorPauw, Kalie
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-05T05:30:46Z
dc.date.available2016-02-05T05:30:46Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.date.updated2016-02-03T08:18:29Z
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this analysis is to develop a better understanding of the likely impact that various mitigation options may have on the economy in terms of GDP, employment and household welfare. As noted in the introduction, outcomes of three mitigation scenarios, Start Now, Scale Up and Use the Market, are evaluated. These mitigation scenarios are combinations of different degrees of energy efficiency that can be achieved, structural shifts in energy output mix and, in the case of the latter scenario, economic instruments used to reduce emissions. Results are compared in comparative static fashion against a ‘business as usual’ reference case called growth without constraints (GWC). This remains a scenario analysis, and by no means can we claim that results are necessarily an accurate reflection of the true outcome. Given the long time horizon and the multitude of economic variables and parameters that may change over time and impact on each other, not to mention factors external to the South Africa economy that cannot be controlled, it is unwise to have too much confidence in results. However, the exercise remains useful. We are upfront about the limitations, the assumptions and the methods used to arrive at results, and given these, the scenario analysis provides a useful starting point for policy discussions around possible outcomes under various different mitigation scenarios for South Africa.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationPauw, K. (2007). Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process. <i>http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07-Pauw-LTMSEconomy-wide_modelling.pdf</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16745en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationPauw, Kalie "Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process." <i>http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07-Pauw-LTMSEconomy-wide_modelling.pdf</i> (2007) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16745en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPauw K. (2007) Economy-wide modeling: an input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process. LTMS Input Report 4, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, October 2007en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1021-447Xen_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Pauw, Kalie AB - The objective of this analysis is to develop a better understanding of the likely impact that various mitigation options may have on the economy in terms of GDP, employment and household welfare. As noted in the introduction, outcomes of three mitigation scenarios, Start Now, Scale Up and Use the Market, are evaluated. These mitigation scenarios are combinations of different degrees of energy efficiency that can be achieved, structural shifts in energy output mix and, in the case of the latter scenario, economic instruments used to reduce emissions. Results are compared in comparative static fashion against a ‘business as usual’ reference case called growth without constraints (GWC). This remains a scenario analysis, and by no means can we claim that results are necessarily an accurate reflection of the true outcome. Given the long time horizon and the multitude of economic variables and parameters that may change over time and impact on each other, not to mention factors external to the South Africa economy that cannot be controlled, it is unwise to have too much confidence in results. However, the exercise remains useful. We are upfront about the limitations, the assumptions and the methods used to arrive at results, and given these, the scenario analysis provides a useful starting point for policy discussions around possible outcomes under various different mitigation scenarios for South Africa. DA - 2007 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07-Pauw-LTMSEconomy-wide_modelling.pdf LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2007 SM - 1021-447X T1 - Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process TI - Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16745 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16745
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationPauw K. Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process. http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07-Pauw-LTMSEconomy-wide_modelling.pdf. 2007; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16745.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherUniversity of Cape Town. Energy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentEnergy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourcehttp://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/07-Pauw-LTMSEconomy-wide_modelling.pdfen_ZA
dc.subject.otherLong Term Mitigation Scenarios
dc.subject.otherSustainable development
dc.subject.otherClimatic changes
dc.titleEconomy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios processen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsEconomy-wide Modelingen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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