Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali

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dc.contributor.authorWinkler, Harald
dc.contributor.authorVorster, Shaun
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-03T14:19:51Z
dc.date.available2016-02-03T14:19:51Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.date.updated2016-02-03T08:48:07Z
dc.description.abstractWhat would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.en_ZA
dc.identifier10.1080/14693062.2007.9685652
dc.identifier.apacitationWinkler, H., & Vorster, S. (2007). Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali. <i>Climate Policy</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16713en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationWinkler, Harald, and Shaun Vorster "Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali." <i>Climate Policy</i> (2007) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16713en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationWinkler, H., & Vorster, S. (2007). Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali. Climate Policy, 7(3), 240-254.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1469-3062en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Winkler, Harald AU - Vorster, Shaun AB - What would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame. DA - 2007 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - Climate Policy LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2007 SM - 1469-3062 T1 - Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali TI - Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16713 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16713
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2007.9685652
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationWinkler H, Vorster S. Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali. Climate Policy. 2007; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16713.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentEnergy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceClimate Policyen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://www.tandfonline.com/toc/tcpo20/current
dc.subject.otherClimatic changes
dc.subject.otherSustainable development
dc.subject.otherClimate negotiations
dc.titleBuilding bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Balien_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsBalien_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsclimate negotiationsen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsdeveloping countriesen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsdevelopment and climateen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsmultilateral climate policy frameworksen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordspackage dealsen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordspost-2012en_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsSouth–Northen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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