The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa

dc.contributor.authorUjma, Christopher
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-29T09:34:54Z
dc.date.available2026-04-29T09:34:54Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.date.updated2026-04-29T07:50:27Z
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the impact of the civil unrest episode that struck South Africa's KwaZulu Natal region in July 2021 on export flows. Using monthly transaction-level data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the study finds that the unrest period resulted in a significant decline in export values, originating primarily from a reduction in the extensive margin (number of distinct product varieties exported per origin-destination relationship). However, these results are found to mask heterogeneity in terms of the impact of this effect across products of varying levels of differentiation, with the total effect of the unrest episode on export values and the extensive margin found to only be significant for differentiated products during the crisis period. Exports of undifferentiated products, meanwhile, exhibited the largest negative effect on the intensive margin (the average value per product variety exported). These significant effects, however, were only present during the month of the unrest for both differentiated and undifferentiated products – suggesting that exporters in affected regions quickly re-entered those product-destination relationships that had been destroyed during the unrest episode; and that the strength of those relationships was not permanently affected by this period.
dc.identifier.apacitationUjma, C. (2023). <i>The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa</i>. (). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationUjma, Christopher. <i>"The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa."</i> ., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2023. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationUjma, C. 2023. The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa. . University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Ujma, Christopher AB - This paper examines the impact of the civil unrest episode that struck South Africa's KwaZulu Natal region in July 2021 on export flows. Using monthly transaction-level data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the study finds that the unrest period resulted in a significant decline in export values, originating primarily from a reduction in the extensive margin (number of distinct product varieties exported per origin-destination relationship). However, these results are found to mask heterogeneity in terms of the impact of this effect across products of varying levels of differentiation, with the total effect of the unrest episode on export values and the extensive margin found to only be significant for differentiated products during the crisis period. Exports of undifferentiated products, meanwhile, exhibited the largest negative effect on the intensive margin (the average value per product variety exported). These significant effects, however, were only present during the month of the unrest for both differentiated and undifferentiated products – suggesting that exporters in affected regions quickly re-entered those product-destination relationships that had been destroyed during the unrest episode; and that the strength of those relationships was not permanently affected by this period. DA - 2023 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Political violence KW - South Africa LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2023 T1 - The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa TI - The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationUjma C. The impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa. []. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2023 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43147en_ZA
dc.language.isoen
dc.language.rfc3066eng
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Economics
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerce
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subjectPolitical violence
dc.subjectSouth Africa
dc.titleThe impact of political violence on export flows: evidence from South Africa
dc.typeThesis / Dissertation
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationlevelLLM
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
thesis_com_2023_ujma christopher.pdf
Size:
1.47 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.72 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Collections