Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation

dc.contributor.authorPunt, Andre´ E
dc.contributor.authorA’mar, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorBond, Nicholas A
dc.contributor.authorButterworth, Doug S
dc.contributor.authorde Moor, Carryn L
dc.contributor.authorDe Oliveira, Jose´ A A
dc.contributor.authorHaltuch, Melissa A
dc.contributor.authorHollowed, Anne B
dc.contributor.authorSzuwalski, Cody
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-14T10:26:49Z
dc.date.available2016-03-14T10:26:49Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.date.updated2016-03-14T10:10:50Z
dc.description.abstractThe ability of management strategies to achieve the fishery management goals are impacted by environmental variation and, therefore, also by global climate change. Management strategies can be modified to use environmental data using the “dynamic B0” concept, and changing the set of years used to define biomass reference points. Two approaches have been developed to apply management strategy evaluation to evaluate the impact of environmental variation on the performance of management strategies. The “mechanistic approach” estimates the relationship between the environment and elements of the population dynamics of the fished species and makes predictions for population trends using the outputs from global climate models. In contrast, the “empirical approach” examines possible broad scenarios without explicitly identifying mechanisms. Many reviewed studies have found that modifying management strategies to include environmental factors does not improve the ability to achieve management goals much, if at all, and only if the manner in which these factors drive the system is well known. As such, until the skill of stock projection models improves, it seems more appropriate to consider the implications of plausible broad forecasts related to how biological parameters may change in the future as a way to assess the robustness of management strategies, rather than attempting specific predictions per se.en_ZA
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst057
dc.identifier.apacitationPunt, A. E., A'mar, T., Bond, N. A., Butterworth, D. S., de Moor, C. L., , ... Szuwalski, C. (2014). Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation. <i>ICES Journal of Marine Science</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17763en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationPunt, Andre E, Teresa A'mar, Nicholas A Bond, Doug S Butterworth, Carryn L de Moor, , Melissa A Haltuch, Anne B Hollowed, and Cody Szuwalski "Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation." <i>ICES Journal of Marine Science</i> (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17763en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPunt, A. E., A'mar, T., Bond, N. A., Butterworth, D. S., de Moor, C. L., De Oliveira, J. A., ... & Szuwalski, C. (2014). Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, 71(8), 2208-2220.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1054-3139en_ZA
dc.identifier.risTY - Journal Article AU - Punt, Andre E AU - A'mar, Teresa AU - Bond, Nicholas A AU - Butterworth, Doug S AU - de Moor, Carryn L AU - De Oliveira, Jose´ A A AU - Haltuch, Melissa A AU - Hollowed, Anne B AU - Szuwalski, Cody AB - The ability of management strategies to achieve the fishery management goals are impacted by environmental variation and, therefore, also by global climate change. Management strategies can be modified to use environmental data using the “dynamic B0” concept, and changing the set of years used to define biomass reference points. Two approaches have been developed to apply management strategy evaluation to evaluate the impact of environmental variation on the performance of management strategies. The “mechanistic approach” estimates the relationship between the environment and elements of the population dynamics of the fished species and makes predictions for population trends using the outputs from global climate models. In contrast, the “empirical approach” examines possible broad scenarios without explicitly identifying mechanisms. Many reviewed studies have found that modifying management strategies to include environmental factors does not improve the ability to achieve management goals much, if at all, and only if the manner in which these factors drive the system is well known. As such, until the skill of stock projection models improves, it seems more appropriate to consider the implications of plausible broad forecasts related to how biological parameters may change in the future as a way to assess the robustness of management strategies, rather than attempting specific predictions per se. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - ICES Journal of Marine Science LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2014 SM - 1054-3139 T1 - Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation TI - Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17763 ER -en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/17763
dc.identifier.urihttps://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/71/8/2208.full
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationPunt AE, A'mar T, Bond NA, Butterworth DS, de Moor CL, , et al. Fisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulation. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17763.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherOxford University Pressen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentMarine Resource Assessment and Management Groupen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceICES Journal of Marine Scienceen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/
dc.subject.otherclimate change
dc.subject.otherglobal climate models
dc.subject.otherharvest control rules
dc.subject.othermanagement strategy evaluation
dc.subject.otherrecruitment
dc.titleFisheries management under climate and environmental uncertainty: control rules and performance simulationen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsclimate change; global climate models; harvest control rules; management strategy evaluation; recruitmenten_ZA
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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