Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men

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dc.creatorLarcom, Shaun
dc.creatorSarr, Mare
dc.creatorWillems, Tim
dc.date2016-07-07T12:31:23Z
dc.date2016-07-07T12:31:23Z
dc.date2016-07
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-06T10:56:21Z
dc.date.available2017-06-06T10:56:21Z
dc.date.issued2017-06-06
dc.descriptionHistory offers many examples of dictators who worsened their behaviour significantly over time (like Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe) as well as dictators who displayed remarkable improvements (like Jerry Rawlings of Ghana). We show that such mutations can result from rational behaviour when the dictator’s flow use of repression is complementary to his accumulated stock of wrongdoings. Interacting this complementarity with uncertainty over the dictator’s degree of impunity in relation to wrongdoing (such that the dictator becomes inclined to experiment along this dimension), produces an environment in which any individual rising to power can end up as either a moderate leader, or as a dreaded tyrant. Our model shows that dictators are more likely to derail with higher levels of divertible funds available, for example stemming from fungible aid inflows or from the exploitation of natural resources. It furthermore suggests that derailment is accidental and that such leaders suffer from ex-post regret. Consequently, increasing accountability can be in the interest of both the public and the dictator.
dc.descriptionShaun Larcom: Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 6-21 Silver Street, Cambridge CB39EP, United Kingdom. Tel.: +44 20 3073 8320. E-mail: stl25@cam.ac.uk. Corresponding author. Mare Sarr: School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa. Tel.: +27 21 650 2982. Email: mare.sarr@uct.ac.za. Tim Willems: Nuffi eld College, and Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Manor Road Building, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom. Also a member of the Centre for Macroeconomics. Tel.: +44 75 076 729 84. E-mail: tim.willems@economics.ox.ac.uk.
dc.identifier978-1-928281-29-0
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11090/817
dc.identifier.ris TY - Working Paper DA - 2017-06-06 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Dictatorship KW - Repression KW - Political violence KW - Resource curse KW - Learning KW - Multiple steady states LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2017 T1 - Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men TI - Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11090/817 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11090/817
dc.languageen
dc.publisher.departmentSALDRUen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.relationSaldru Working Paper;168
dc.subjectDictatorship
dc.subjectRepression
dc.subjectPolitical violence
dc.subjectResource curse
dc.subjectLearning
dc.subjectMultiple steady states
dc.titleDictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men
dc.typeWorking Paper
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceWorking Paperen_ZA
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