Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996

Simple item page
dc.contributor.advisorDorrington, Roben_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMagadzire, Andrewen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2014-07-31T12:39:57Z
dc.date.available2014-07-31T12:39:57Z
dc.date.issued2010en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes abstract.
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 71-73).
dc.description.abstractThis study utilises the 1996 and 2001 Censuses, and the 2007 Community Survey to test the orphanhood method mortality estimates against consensus estimates of mortality produced using other methods. In all the two censuses and the survey there were questions on the survival status of the respondent’s biological parents. The orphanhood method is widely used in developing countries where the vital registration is incomplete. In countries where the data on survival of parents has been compared with other mortality estimates, it has been observed that the orphanhood method estimates are biased by adoption effect, selection effect and age exaggeration. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the advent of HIV/AIDS has also biased estimates obtained from the orphanhood method. Non-independence of the mortality of children and their mothers, relationships between HIV infection and fertility, and changes in age-specific mortality result in biases which affect the accuracy of the method. These biases have been observed to have a net effect of underestimating mortality especially female mortality. An adjusted method has been proposed which reduces error, when working with data taken from populations with a significant HIV prevalence. This adjustment can be applied, but further research to identify revised adjustments would further improve the accuracy of the method. The current research applies four variants of the orphanhood method, the regression variant, UN Manual’s two-survey variant, Timaeus’s synthetic cohort variant and the one allowing for HIV/AIDS proposed by Timaeus and Nunn.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationMagadzire, A. (2010). <i>Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5894en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationMagadzire, Andrew. <i>"Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE), 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5894en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMagadzire, A. 2010. Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Magadzire, Andrew AB - This study utilises the 1996 and 2001 Censuses, and the 2007 Community Survey to test the orphanhood method mortality estimates against consensus estimates of mortality produced using other methods. In all the two censuses and the survey there were questions on the survival status of the respondent’s biological parents. The orphanhood method is widely used in developing countries where the vital registration is incomplete. In countries where the data on survival of parents has been compared with other mortality estimates, it has been observed that the orphanhood method estimates are biased by adoption effect, selection effect and age exaggeration. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the advent of HIV/AIDS has also biased estimates obtained from the orphanhood method. Non-independence of the mortality of children and their mothers, relationships between HIV infection and fertility, and changes in age-specific mortality result in biases which affect the accuracy of the method. These biases have been observed to have a net effect of underestimating mortality especially female mortality. An adjusted method has been proposed which reduces error, when working with data taken from populations with a significant HIV prevalence. This adjustment can be applied, but further research to identify revised adjustments would further improve the accuracy of the method. The current research applies four variants of the orphanhood method, the regression variant, UN Manual’s two-survey variant, Timaeus’s synthetic cohort variant and the one allowing for HIV/AIDS proposed by Timaeus and Nunn. DA - 2010 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2010 T1 - Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996 TI - Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996 UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5894 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/5894
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationMagadzire A. Testing the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE), 2010 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5894en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentCentre for Actuarial Research (CARE)en_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherDemographyen_ZA
dc.titleTesting the orphanhood method against benchmark mortality rates in South Africa since 1996en_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMPhilen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
thesis_com_2010_magadzire_a.pdf
Size:
1.38 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Masters