Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement

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dc.contributor.authorSilal, Sheetal Prakashen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLittle, Francescaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBarnes, Karen Irmaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Lisa Janeen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-10T14:46:54Z
dc.date.available2016-02-10T14:46:54Z
dc.date.issued2015en_ZA
dc.description.abstractSouth Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationSilal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement. <i>PLoS One</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16952en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationSilal, Sheetal Prakash, Francesca Little, Karen Irma Barnes, and Lisa Jane White "Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement." <i>PLoS One</i> (2015) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16952en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationSilal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement. PloS one, 10(12), e0144990. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0144990en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Silal, Sheetal Prakash AU - Little, Francesca AU - Barnes, Karen Irma AU - White, Lisa Jane AB - South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0144990 DP - University of Cape Town J1 - PLoS One LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement TI - Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16952 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144990en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16952
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationSilal SP, Little F, Barnes KI, White LJ. Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement. PLoS One. 2015; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16952.en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Statistical Sciencesen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.rightsThis is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.en_ZA
dc.rights.holder© 2015 Silal et alen_ZA
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_ZA
dc.sourcePLoS Oneen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosoneen_ZA
dc.subject.otherMalariaen_ZA
dc.subject.otherInfectious disease controlen_ZA
dc.subject.otherVector-borne diseasesen_ZA
dc.subject.otherSouth Africaen_ZA
dc.subject.otherMozambiqueen_ZA
dc.subject.otherDrug administrationen_ZA
dc.subject.otherDrug therapyen_ZA
dc.subject.otherMalarial parasitesen_ZA
dc.titleHitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movementen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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