Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorChambers, Lynda Een_ZA
dc.contributor.authorAltwegg, Resen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBarbraud, Christopheen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBarnard, Phoebeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBeaumont, Linda Jen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCrawford, Robert J Men_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDurant, Joel Men_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHughes, Lesleyen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKeatley, Marie Ren_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLow, Matten_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-10T14:47:32Z
dc.date.available2015-11-10T14:47:32Z
dc.date.issued2013en_ZA
dc.description.abstractCurrent evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori . We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationChambers, L. E., Altwegg, R., Barbraud, C., Barnard, P., Beaumont, L. J., Crawford, R. J. M., ... Low, M. (2013). Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere. <i>PLoS One</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14830en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationChambers, Lynda E, Res Altwegg, Christophe Barbraud, Phoebe Barnard, Linda J Beaumont, Robert J M Crawford, Joel M Durant, Lesley Hughes, Marie R Keatley, and Matt Low "Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere." <i>PLoS One</i> (2013) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14830en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationChambers, L. E., Altwegg, R., Barbraud, C., Barnard, P., Beaumont, L. J., Crawford, R. J., ... & Wolfaardt, A. C. (2013). Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere. PloS one, 8(10), e75514. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075514en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Chambers, Lynda E AU - Altwegg, Res AU - Barbraud, Christophe AU - Barnard, Phoebe AU - Beaumont, Linda J AU - Crawford, Robert J M AU - Durant, Joel M AU - Hughes, Lesley AU - Keatley, Marie R AU - Low, Matt AB - Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori . We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. DA - 2013 DB - OpenUCT DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0075514 DP - University of Cape Town J1 - PLoS One LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2013 T1 - Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere TI - Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14830 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/14830
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationChambers LE, Altwegg R, Barbraud C, Barnard P, Beaumont LJ, Crawford RJM, et al. Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere. PLoS One. 2013; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14830.en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentAnimal Demography Unit (ADU)en_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.rightsThis is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.en_ZA
dc.rights.holder© 2013 Chambers et alen_ZA
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_ZA
dc.sourcePLoS Oneen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosoneen_ZA
dc.subject.otherSouthern Hemisphereen_ZA
dc.subject.otherClimate changeen_ZA
dc.subject.otherAnimal sexual behavioren_ZA
dc.subject.otherAntarcticaen_ZA
dc.subject.otherAnimal migrationen_ZA
dc.subject.otherBirdsen_ZA
dc.titlePhenological changes in the Southern Hemisphereen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Chambers_Phenological_Changes_Southern_Hemisphere_2013.pdf
Size:
216.07 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Journal Articles