Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?

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dc.contributor.advisorStone, Adrianen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorMerven, Brunoen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorOdera, Sarahen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-27T10:11:27Z
dc.date.available2016-07-27T10:11:27Z
dc.date.issued2016en_ZA
dc.description.abstractIn 2010, the adoption of nuclear power was declared a national priority in Kenya. Thereafter, a target of obtaining 4000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2030 was documented in Kenya's Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2010-2031. The nuclear target has drawn a lot of opposition from some Kenyans whose concerns are centered on the cost and safety risks incurred by nuclear power. The government however states that nuclear power is necessary for the diversification of the electricity generation mix and satisfaction of future electricity demand. The aim of this thesis was therefore to determine whether electricity demand in Kenya could be met without nuclear power and whether it was more economical to utilize nuclear power in Kenya's electricity generation mix rather than increase the generation capacity of other sources of electricity available to Kenya. To answer these questions, two capacity expansion models were developed. These models like the LCPDP studied the period between 2010 and 2031. The aim of the first model was to replicate LCPDP, and in doing so verify the necessity of nuclear power for meeting Kenya's future electricity demand. As far as was possible, the validation model utilized the same assumptions, including the same demand forecast that was used to develop the LCPDP 2010-2031. The validation was done to verify the necessity of nuclear power from the LCPDP's set of assumptions. The second model was developed with the aim of obtaining an updated capacity expansion plan. This plan utilized recent assumptions including an updated demand forecast. The demand was forecasted using regression of historical electricity demand against GDP in the commercial and industrial category. In the domestic category historical demand was regressed against GDP per capita and population. Based on recent data and economic forecasts, a GDP growth rate of 6% was used to forecast the electricity demand instead of 9% used in the LCPDP's demand forecast. [Please note: this thesis file has been deferred until June 2018]en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationOdera, S. (2016). <i>Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Energy Research Centre. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20830en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationOdera, Sarah. <i>"Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Energy Research Centre, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20830en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationOdera, S. 2016. Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Odera, Sarah AB - In 2010, the adoption of nuclear power was declared a national priority in Kenya. Thereafter, a target of obtaining 4000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2030 was documented in Kenya's Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2010-2031. The nuclear target has drawn a lot of opposition from some Kenyans whose concerns are centered on the cost and safety risks incurred by nuclear power. The government however states that nuclear power is necessary for the diversification of the electricity generation mix and satisfaction of future electricity demand. The aim of this thesis was therefore to determine whether electricity demand in Kenya could be met without nuclear power and whether it was more economical to utilize nuclear power in Kenya's electricity generation mix rather than increase the generation capacity of other sources of electricity available to Kenya. To answer these questions, two capacity expansion models were developed. These models like the LCPDP studied the period between 2010 and 2031. The aim of the first model was to replicate LCPDP, and in doing so verify the necessity of nuclear power for meeting Kenya's future electricity demand. As far as was possible, the validation model utilized the same assumptions, including the same demand forecast that was used to develop the LCPDP 2010-2031. The validation was done to verify the necessity of nuclear power from the LCPDP's set of assumptions. The second model was developed with the aim of obtaining an updated capacity expansion plan. This plan utilized recent assumptions including an updated demand forecast. The demand was forecasted using regression of historical electricity demand against GDP in the commercial and industrial category. In the domestic category historical demand was regressed against GDP per capita and population. Based on recent data and economic forecasts, a GDP growth rate of 6% was used to forecast the electricity demand instead of 9% used in the LCPDP's demand forecast. [Please note: this thesis file has been deferred until June 2018] DA - 2016 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2016 T1 - Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix? TI - Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix? UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20830 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/20830
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationOdera S. Is nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Energy Research Centre, 2016 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20830en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentEnergy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherEnergy Researchen_ZA
dc.titleIs nuclear power a cost optimal solution for Kenya's electricity generation mix?en_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMSc (Eng)en_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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