The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi

dc.contributor.advisorMpofu, Trust
dc.contributor.authorNkuna, Bongekile
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-15T14:40:51Z
dc.date.available2025-09-15T14:40:51Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.date.updated2025-09-15T14:36:26Z
dc.description.abstractThe relationship between inflation and fiscal deficit has created a lot of interest among researchers; however, the results remain inconclusive. Malawi is a country that has rarely had stable inflation but at the same time fiscal policy has been one of the tools that has been constantly used to help the economy grow. The study thus examines the effect of government balance, the measure of fiscal policy used, on inflation volatility in Malawi from 1980 to 2022. Yearly inflation volatility is modelled using the Moving Average Standard Deviation methodology on monthly inflation data. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) process is used to find the long run relationship between inflation volatility and the fiscal variables while the Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to find the short run relationship. The results show that fiscal balance does have an impact on inflation volatility in both the long run and the short run. Results also show that the exchange rate has a significant impact but only in the short run.
dc.identifier.apacitationNkuna, B. (2025). <i>The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi</i>. (). Universiy of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationNkuna, Bongekile. <i>"The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi."</i> ., Universiy of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2025. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationNkuna, B. 2025. The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi. . Universiy of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Nkuna, Bongekile AB - The relationship between inflation and fiscal deficit has created a lot of interest among researchers; however, the results remain inconclusive. Malawi is a country that has rarely had stable inflation but at the same time fiscal policy has been one of the tools that has been constantly used to help the economy grow. The study thus examines the effect of government balance, the measure of fiscal policy used, on inflation volatility in Malawi from 1980 to 2022. Yearly inflation volatility is modelled using the Moving Average Standard Deviation methodology on monthly inflation data. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) process is used to find the long run relationship between inflation volatility and the fiscal variables while the Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to find the short run relationship. The results show that fiscal balance does have an impact on inflation volatility in both the long run and the short run. Results also show that the exchange rate has a significant impact but only in the short run. DA - 2025 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - inflation KW - fiscal deficit KW - Malawi LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - Universiy of Cape Town PY - 2025 T1 - The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi TI - The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationNkuna B. The effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi. []. Universiy of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2025 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/41817en_ZA
dc.language.isoen
dc.language.rfc3066eng
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Economics
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerce
dc.publisher.institutionUniversiy of Cape Town
dc.subjectinflation
dc.subjectfiscal deficit
dc.subjectMalawi
dc.titleThe effect of fiscal policy on inflation volatility in Malawi
dc.typeThesis / Dissertation
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationlevelMCom
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