Conditioning of the full set of robustness tests for the South African hake resource to be used in OMP-2010 testing and constant catch projections

Rademeyer, Rebecca A; Butterworth, Doug S

Conditioning of the full set of robustness tests for the South African hake resource to be used in OMP-2010 testing and constant catch projections

Working Paper

2010

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Results for conditioning of the full set of robustness/sensitivity tests for the current hake OMP revision process are given, and projections carried out under a constant catch strategy. Although the final one or two CMPs will be checked on the complete suite of robustness tests, only a selected subset of robustness tests will be used to test the CMPs routinely. The intention is therefore to reduce the number of robustness tests that will be run routinely on the CMPs by selecting the ones which appear under constant catch projections to present the greatest challenges from a resource conservation perspective. (Naturally constant catch projections do not provide discrimination amongst tests that involve changes to default assumptions for aspects of future data such as changes in precision, so that such tests will remain retained in this selected set.) A projected constant catch of 150 000t has been chosen as this will be more informative (in terms of the poor resource conservation performers) than a constant catch set at the current TAC.