Assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2018: Initial results at the joint posterior mode for the two mixing-component hypothesis.

de Moor, Carryn

Assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2018: Initial results at the joint posterior mode for the two mixing-component hypothesis.

Report

2019

Abstract

The assessment of the South African sardine resource is in the process of being revised and updated using data available up to November 2018. While some data are yet to be finalised and robustness to some key model assumptions is still to be considered, the initial results presented here are expected to be sufficiently accurate such that they can reliably form the basis of simple constant catch projections for short-term management decisions. The assessment model considers the sardine population to consist of two mixing ‘components’, with a west component distributed west of Cape Agulhas and a south component distributed south-east of Cape Agulhas. Mixing occurs via movement from the west to the south component in November each year and via some contribution from the south component spawning biomass towards west component recruitment.

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