Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for the Tristan group of islands for the 2016/17 season

Butterworth, Doug S; Johnston, Susan J

Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for the Tristan group of islands for the 2016/17 season

Working Paper

2016-06

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

OMPs have recently been accepted as the basis to recommend TACs for Tristan, Inaccessible and Gough islands. Given that for Inaccessible and Gough the recent catch rates continue to be above the associated OMP’s target catch rate, the OMPs indicate increases to the TACs for both islands for the 2016 season: Inaccessible: 77 MT to 81 MT Gough: 105 MT to 110 MT High catch rates (relative to pre-OLIVA) continue at Nightingale with some moderate recent decline. The reasons for these high levels remain unconfirmed, though there are some indications that they reflect high recruitment around 2005. However, the possible negative impact on recruitment in 2011 as a consequence of the OLIVA oil spill may still be to be felt in the fishery, as those recruits have still to reach catchable size. Nevertheless projections are very positive in the longer term even with a future TAC of 75 MT, so that an increased initial TAC for the 2016 season of 70 MT season is recommended. The similar precautionary approach that has been implemented for the previous two years should be followed, i.e. set the TAC at 70 MT when this season starts, with an increase to 75 MT to be considered in November based on decision rules that take the 2016 biomass survey and initial nominal CPUE results into account. An OMP for Nightingale will be developed for use in setting the 2017/18 TAC. The updated OMP for Tristan sets the TAC for 2016 at 120 MT.

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