Assessing the processes of determining adaptation finance needs: a comparative study of African NDCs

Murape, Natalie Tatenda

Assessing the processes of determining adaptation finance needs: a comparative study of African NDCs

Thesis / Dissertation

2025

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Environmental and Geographical Science

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent a key framework for climate action, outlining each country's commitment to reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to the impacts of climate change. In Africa, the significance of adaptation finance in supporting the implementation of NDCs cannot be overstated, especially with most African countries requiring external financial support. To close the financial gap, the UNFCCC requested developing countries provide cost estimates for implementing their NDC commitments. However, most countries struggled to compute these estimates, and only a few managed to indicate both the estimates and costing processes. Previous research has looked at the overall cost of adaptation in developing countries; however, a comprehensive assessment to evaluate the robustness of processes used to determine adaptation finance needs expressed in NDCs is still lacking. This thesis solely assesses 27 African countries that submitted their 2021 NDCs in English. It documents the various approaches adopted and assesses their robustness against criteria based on the 'elements of adaptation communications', a framework adopted from the World Resource Institute. The framework provides guidelines on reporting national circumstances, assessing impacts, risks, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and identifying financial needs. The thesis investigates costing methodologies and whether governments provided detailed information on impact and vulnerability assessments related to the adaptation options that require financial support. This qualitative analysis of the African NDCs revealed that most countries state the figures without providing information on the methodologies or processes of costing the adaptation actions. Although there is a growing recognition of the need to include detailed costing methodologies in NDCs, such reporting currently needs to happen. A context-based reporting format should be developed and standardized at a regional level, which can work as a blueprint for countries with similar national circumstances and exposure to climate impacts.

Keywords

Africa, NDCs, Adaptation finance and Climate change

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