Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications
| dc.contributor.author | Van Walbeek, CP | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-07-06T13:42:55Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-07-06T13:42:55Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2006 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2016-03-22T12:25:40Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper investigates the bias and dispersion in official revisions of eight national accounting growth rates. The growth in GDP, consumption expenditure and personal disposable income by households has been subject to significant upward revisions and bias, especially after 1994. No significant bias was found in the revisions to the other national accounting aggregates. The official revisions are subject to a high degree of dispersion. Based on the 1984-2003 period, there is a 30 per cent probability that the “final” growth rate in GDE deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the first release growth rate. For most magnitudes, other than exports and imports, the dispersion in South Africa's official revisions is similar to that of a sample of OECD countries. Using two examples, it is shown that the vintage of the data has a profound impact on the magnitude and significance of regression results based on such data. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00094.x | |
| dc.identifier.apacitation | Van Walbeek, C. (2006). Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications. <i>South African Journal of Economics</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20230 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.chicagocitation | Van Walbeek, CP "Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications." <i>South African Journal of Economics</i> (2006) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20230 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.citation | Van Walbeek, C. (2006). Official revisions to South African national accounts data: magnitudes and implications. South African Journal of Economics, 74(4), 745-765. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0038-2280 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.ris | TY - Journal Article AU - Van Walbeek, CP AB - This paper investigates the bias and dispersion in official revisions of eight national accounting growth rates. The growth in GDP, consumption expenditure and personal disposable income by households has been subject to significant upward revisions and bias, especially after 1994. No significant bias was found in the revisions to the other national accounting aggregates. The official revisions are subject to a high degree of dispersion. Based on the 1984-2003 period, there is a 30 per cent probability that the “final” growth rate in GDE deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the first release growth rate. For most magnitudes, other than exports and imports, the dispersion in South Africa's official revisions is similar to that of a sample of OECD countries. Using two examples, it is shown that the vintage of the data has a profound impact on the magnitude and significance of regression results based on such data. DA - 2006 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - South African Journal of Economics LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2006 SM - 0038-2280 T1 - Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications TI - Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20230 ER - | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20230 | |
| dc.identifier.vancouvercitation | Van Walbeek C. Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications. South African Journal of Economics. 2006; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20230. | en_ZA |
| dc.language | eng | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Wiley | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.department | Centre for Social Science Research(CSSR) | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.faculty | Faculty of Humanities | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.institution | University of Cape Town | |
| dc.source | South African Journal of Economics | en_ZA |
| dc.source.uri | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00094.x/abstract | |
| dc.title | Official revisions to South African national accounts data: Magnitudes and implications | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Journal Article | en_ZA |
| uct.type.filetype | Text | |
| uct.type.filetype | Image | |
| uct.type.publication | Research | en_ZA |
| uct.type.resource | Article | en_ZA |