Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment

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dc.contributor.authorNattrass, Nattrass
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-04T13:46:04Z
dc.date.available2018-04-04T13:46:04Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.date.updated2016-01-20T11:45:50Z
dc.description.abstractThis paper shows how two publicly available epidemiological modelling packages, namely the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic Model, predict very different impacts from rolling out highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on new HIV infections. Using South Africa as a case study, it shows that the ASSA2003 model predicts a significant drop in new HIV infections as HAART is rolled out, whereas the Spectrum model assumes that HAART does not have a preventative impact (and in fact generates a small increase in new HIV infections). Users will thus draw different conclusions about the public health benefits of HAART depending on which modelling package they use. Despite being presented as a policy-oriented modelling tool capable of exploring 'what if' questions about the impact of different policy choices, the Spectrum model is illequipped to do so with regard to a HAART rollout. Unlike Spectrum, ASSA2003 is more flexible and its assumptions are clear. Better modelling and more information (including about the relationship between HAART and sexual risk behaviour) is required to develop appropriate public-policy modelling for the HAART era.
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.2989/16085900709490407
dc.identifier.apacitationNattrass, N. (2007). Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment. <i>African Journal of AIDS Research</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27749en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationNattrass, Nattrass "Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment." <i>African Journal of AIDS Research</i> (2007) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27749en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationNattrass, N. (2007). Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment. African Journal of AIDS Research, 6(2), 129-137.
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Nattrass, Nattrass AB - This paper shows how two publicly available epidemiological modelling packages, namely the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic Model, predict very different impacts from rolling out highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on new HIV infections. Using South Africa as a case study, it shows that the ASSA2003 model predicts a significant drop in new HIV infections as HAART is rolled out, whereas the Spectrum model assumes that HAART does not have a preventative impact (and in fact generates a small increase in new HIV infections). Users will thus draw different conclusions about the public health benefits of HAART depending on which modelling package they use. Despite being presented as a policy-oriented modelling tool capable of exploring 'what if' questions about the impact of different policy choices, the Spectrum model is illequipped to do so with regard to a HAART rollout. Unlike Spectrum, ASSA2003 is more flexible and its assumptions are clear. Better modelling and more information (including about the relationship between HAART and sexual risk behaviour) is required to develop appropriate public-policy modelling for the HAART era. DA - 2007 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - African Journal of AIDS Research LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2007 T1 - Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment TI - Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27749 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/27749
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationNattrass N. Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment. African Journal of AIDS Research. 2007; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27749.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Economicsen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceAfrican Journal of AIDS Research
dc.source.urihttp://www.nisc.co.za/products/1/journals/african-journal-of-aids-research
dc.subject.otherdemographic models
dc.subject.otherHAART
dc.subject.otherhealth impact
dc.subject.otherinterventions
dc.subject.othermathematical models
dc.subject.otherpolicy development
dc.subject.othersexual risk behaviour
dc.subject.otherSouth Africa
dc.titleModelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: limitations of the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
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