Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations?

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dc.contributor.authorButterworth, Doug S
dc.contributor.authorBentley, Nokome
dc.contributor.authorDe Oliveira, JoseĀ“ A A
dc.contributor.authorDonovan, Gregory P
dc.contributor.authorKell, Laurence T
dc.contributor.authorParma, Ana M
dc.contributor.authorPunt, AndreĀ“ E
dc.contributor.authorSainsbury, Keith J
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Anthony D M
dc.contributor.authorStokes, Kevin T
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-11T10:57:40Z
dc.date.available2016-03-11T10:57:40Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.date.updated2016-03-11T10:44:05Z
dc.description.abstractRochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE) as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of criticisms at its implementation. Some of their points are sound, such as the need for care in representing uncertainties and for thorough documentation of the process. However, others evidence important misunderstandings. Although the difficulties in estimating tail probabilities and risks, as discussed by Rochet and Rice, are well known, their arguments that Efron's non-parametric bootstrap re-sampling method underestimates the probabilities of low values are flawed. In any case, though, the focus of MSEs is primarily on comparing performance and robustness across alternative management procedures (MPs), rather than on estimating absolute levels of risk. Qualitative methods can augment MSE, but their limitations also need to be recognized. Intelligence certainly needs to play a role in fisheries management, but not at the level of tinkering in the provision of annual advice, which Rochet and Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs the risk of advice following noise rather than signal. Instead, intelligence should come into play in the exercise of oversight through the process of multiannual reviews of MSE and associated MPs. A number of examples are given of the process of interaction with stakeholders which should characterize MSE.en_ZA
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq009
dc.identifier.apacitationButterworth, D. S., Bentley, N., , Donovan, G. P., Kell, L. T., Parma, A. M., ... Stokes, K. T. (2010). Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations?. <i>ICES Journal of Marine Science</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17636en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationButterworth, Doug S, Nokome Bentley, , Gregory P Donovan, Laurence T Kell, Ana M Parma, , Keith J Sainsbury, Anthony D M Smith, and Kevin T Stokes "Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations?." <i>ICES Journal of Marine Science</i> (2010) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17636en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationButterworth, D. S., Bentley, N., De Oliveira, J. A., Donovan, G. P., Kell, L. T., Parma, A. M., ... & Stokes, T. K. (2010). Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation: basic problems or misinterpretations?. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, fsq009.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1814-232Xen_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Butterworth, Doug S AU - Bentley, Nokome AU - De Oliveira, JoseĀ“ A A AU - Donovan, Gregory P AU - Kell, Laurence T AU - Parma, Ana M AU - Punt, AndreĀ“ E AU - Sainsbury, Keith J AU - Smith, Anthony D M AU - Stokes, Kevin T AB - Rochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE) as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of criticisms at its implementation. Some of their points are sound, such as the need for care in representing uncertainties and for thorough documentation of the process. However, others evidence important misunderstandings. Although the difficulties in estimating tail probabilities and risks, as discussed by Rochet and Rice, are well known, their arguments that Efron's non-parametric bootstrap re-sampling method underestimates the probabilities of low values are flawed. In any case, though, the focus of MSEs is primarily on comparing performance and robustness across alternative management procedures (MPs), rather than on estimating absolute levels of risk. Qualitative methods can augment MSE, but their limitations also need to be recognized. Intelligence certainly needs to play a role in fisheries management, but not at the level of tinkering in the provision of annual advice, which Rochet and Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs the risk of advice following noise rather than signal. Instead, intelligence should come into play in the exercise of oversight through the process of multiannual reviews of MSE and associated MPs. A number of examples are given of the process of interaction with stakeholders which should characterize MSE. DA - 2010 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - ICES Journal of Marine Science LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2010 SM - 1814-232X T1 - Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations? TI - Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations? UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17636 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/17636
dc.identifier.urihttp://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/67/3/567
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationButterworth DS, Bentley N, , Donovan GP, Kell LT, Parma AM, et al. Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations?. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2010; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17636.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherNational Inquiry Services Centre (NISC)en_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentMarine Resource Assessment and Management Groupen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceICES Journal of Marine Scienceen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/73/1.toc
dc.subject.otherManagement procedure
dc.subject.otherManagement strategy evaluation
dc.subject.otherMonte Carlo simulation
dc.subject.otherRisk estimation
dc.subject.otherUncertainty
dc.titlePurported flaws in management strategy evaluation:basic problems or misinterpretations?en_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsManagement procedureen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsManagement strategyen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsEvaluationen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsMonte Carlo simulationen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsRisk estimationen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsUncertaintyen_ZA
uct.type.filetype
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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