Dissecting the metabolism of South Africa's power house: Mpumalanga

Gibbons, Lucy

Dissecting the metabolism of South Africa's power house: Mpumalanga

Thesis / Dissertation

2024

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Chemical Engineering

Faculty

Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment

Abstract

Combatting anthropogenic climate change, arguably the biggest threat facing humanity, necessitates the phasing out of fossil fuels. In this context, South Africa's heavy reliance on coal for primary energy and electricity presents significant challenges, intensified by the nation's persistent issues of poverty, inequality, and unemployment. The risks inherent in the country's inevitable shift away from coal are, however, unevenly distributed. The province of Mpumalanga plays a pivotal role in powering the nation with its coal-fired power stations, placing it at the heart of South Africa's energy transition. This dissertation sets out to provide an empirical and theoretically grounded contribution to the extensive research being done to inform and guide Mpumalanga's transition. Employing the lens of social metabolism, this study collates and analyses the province's material, energy and water flows, which are foundational to its economic structure. The primary objective is to present a baseline metabolic assessment of Mpumalanga for the year 2017, as defined by its provincial boundaries. This involves regionalising national accounts to the province's unique context, ascertaining the need for and availability of additional data, and developing provincial metabolic indicators. The concept of social metabolism has gained recognition for its utility in sustainability assessments, yet its application in South Africa, and specifically within Mpumalanga, remains limited. To achieve the research objectives, the dissertation adopts a quantitative approach that adheres to an established economy-wide material flow analysis framework. To make it a metabolic analysis, this approach is broadened to account for both nutritional and technical energy flows, alongside water. Data were sourced from both national and provincial statistics, as well as industry reports. Where data were lacking or insufficient, estimates were derived from national accounts using proxies. It is recognised that the study's reliance on quantitative metrics limits its scope, focusing on the province's metabolism without delving into the influence of regulatory mechanisms that shape the observed flows. The resulting metabolic profile of the province is analysed within the dual contexts of Mpumalanga's own energy dynamics and the broader national trends towards sustainability. The analysis reveals Mpumalanga's coal-centric socio-economic metabolism, dominated by coal exports, electricity generation, coal-to-liquid processes, and heavy industry (smelters). This is quantitatively evident in the province's significant per capita domestic extraction (65 tons), net exports (22 tons), air emissions (14 tons) and extractive waste (12 tons). All these exhibit intensities surpassing the national average seven- to thirteen-fold, on both a per capita and per area basis. Moreover, coal's dominance is reflected in the province's technical energy and water flows, with coal accounting for 97% of domestic technical energy inputs and with 17% of the water supply allocated to coal-based energy infrastructure, more than five-times the national average. This overwhelming focus on coal has likely led to the suppression of other resource flows and their associated industries, with agriculture being the most obviously affected. In preparation for Mpumalanga's transition to a low carbon economy, it is recommended to strategically reduce the province's coal dependency alongside actively planning for revitalising and growing supressed and alternative metabolic pathways. The coal phase-out should offer opportunities in water, renewable energy, and agriculture. However, further efforts are necessary to improve data monitoring and reporting at the sub-national level, as well as to identify and explore strategic alternative pathways for economic diversification within the province.