Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle

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dc.contributor.authorHegerl, Gabriele C
dc.contributor.authorBlack, Emily
dc.contributor.authorAllan, Richard P
dc.contributor.authorIngram, William J
dc.contributor.authorPolson, Debbie
dc.contributor.authorTrenberth, Kevin E
dc.contributor.authorChadwick, Robin S
dc.contributor.authorArkin, Phillip A
dc.contributor.authorSarojini, Beena Balan
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Andreas
dc.contributor.authorDai, Aiguo
dc.contributor.authorDurack, Paul J
dc.contributor.authorEasterling, David
dc.contributor.authorFowler, Hayley J
dc.contributor.authorKendon, Elizabeth J
dc.contributor.authorHuffman, George J
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Chunlei
dc.contributor.authorMarsh, Robert
dc.contributor.authorNew, Mark
dc.contributor.authorOsborn, Timothy J
dc.contributor.authorSkliris, Nikolaos
dc.contributor.authorStott, Peter A
dc.contributor.authorVidale, Pier-Luigi
dc.contributor.authorWijffels, Susan E
dc.contributor.authorWilcox, Laura J
dc.contributor.authorWillett, Kate M
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T06:54:58Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T06:54:58Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractHuman influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.
dc.identifier.apacitationHegerl, G. C., Black, E., Allan, R. P., Ingram, W. J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., ... Zhang, X. (2015). Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle. <i>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society</i>, 96(7), 1097 - 1115. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationHegerl, Gabriele C, Emily Black, Richard P Allan, William J Ingram, Debbie Polson, Kevin E Trenberth, Robin S Chadwick, et al "Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle." <i>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society</i> 96, 7. (2015): 1097 - 1115. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationHegerl, G.C., Black, E., Allan, R.P., Ingram, W.J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K.E., Chadwick, R.S. & Arkin, P.A. et al. 2015. Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle. <i>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.</i> 96(7):1097 - 1115. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0003-0007
dc.identifier.issn1520-0477
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C AU - Black, Emily AU - Allan, Richard P AU - Ingram, William J AU - Polson, Debbie AU - Trenberth, Kevin E AU - Chadwick, Robin S AU - Arkin, Phillip A AU - Sarojini, Beena Balan AU - Becker, Andreas AU - Dai, Aiguo AU - Durack, Paul J AU - Easterling, David AU - Fowler, Hayley J AU - Kendon, Elizabeth J AU - Huffman, George J AU - Liu, Chunlei AU - Marsh, Robert AU - New, Mark AU - Osborn, Timothy J AU - Skliris, Nikolaos AU - Stott, Peter A AU - Vidale, Pier-Luigi AU - Wijffels, Susan E AU - Wilcox, Laura J AU - Willett, Kate M AU - Zhang, Xuebin AB - Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 7 J1 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2015 SM - 0003-0007 SM - 1520-0477 T1 - Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle TI - Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationHegerl GC, Black E, Allan RP, Ingram WJ, Polson D, Trenberth KE, et al. Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2015;96(7):1097 - 1115. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34387.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Environmental and Geographical Science
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.sourceBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
dc.source.journalissue7
dc.source.journalvolume96
dc.source.pagination1097 - 1115
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
dc.subject.otherBurns
dc.subject.otherDisaster Planning
dc.subject.otherHumans
dc.subject.otherMass Casualty Incidents
dc.subject.otherNational Health Programs
dc.subject.otherPractice Guidelines as Topic
dc.subject.otherSocieties, Medical
dc.subject.otherSouth Africa
dc.titleChallenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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