HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis

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dc.contributor.advisorNattrass, Nicolien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWarren, Keeletsang Heatheren_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-10T14:17:38Z
dc.date.available2015-11-10T14:17:38Z
dc.date.issued2009en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 51-57).en_ZA
dc.description.abstractOver the past decade, a number of epidemiological studies have found a direct negative correlation between the practice of male circumcision (MC) and the prevalence of HIV in the general population. These studies were supported by three Randomised Control Trials in Kenya, Uganda and South Africa that found that MC can reduce the probability of female to male infection by between 51 and 60%. Given this, male circumcision is becoming an increasingly discussed addition to HIV prevention programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Using DHS data from Swaziland and Lesotho and BAIS II data from Botswana this paper uses multivariate logistic regressions to assess the impact of MC on HIV. It further tests for any sample selection bias within the data as a result of non-response of HIV testing. The efficacy of MC in reducing the risk of HIV transmissions is dependent on circumcised men continuing to practice safe sex such as a single partner and condom use. To test for sexual risk a further logistic regression is run using condom use as the dependent variable to determine whether circumcised men engage in riskier sexual behaviour. After controlling for demographic, socio-economic and behavioural determinants of HIV, MC is found to be significant in reducing the probability of being HIV positive in Botswana and Swaziland. In these two countries circumcised men do not appear to engage in riskier sexual behaviour. In Lesotho, despite the high prevalence of MC it does not appear significant in explaining HIV status. This may he explained in part by the fact that circumcised men have a lower probability of using condoms, increasing their risk and negating the effect of MC. Other factors which may explain this relationship in Lesotho is the possibility that traditional circumcision does not remove the entire foreskin and the age at which the circumcision is taking place. All these need to be considered if implementing a large scalp MC programme.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationWarren, K. H. (2009). <i>HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14808en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationWarren, Keeletsang Heather. <i>"HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14808en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationWarren, K. 2009. HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Warren, Keeletsang Heather AB - Over the past decade, a number of epidemiological studies have found a direct negative correlation between the practice of male circumcision (MC) and the prevalence of HIV in the general population. These studies were supported by three Randomised Control Trials in Kenya, Uganda and South Africa that found that MC can reduce the probability of female to male infection by between 51 and 60%. Given this, male circumcision is becoming an increasingly discussed addition to HIV prevention programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Using DHS data from Swaziland and Lesotho and BAIS II data from Botswana this paper uses multivariate logistic regressions to assess the impact of MC on HIV. It further tests for any sample selection bias within the data as a result of non-response of HIV testing. The efficacy of MC in reducing the risk of HIV transmissions is dependent on circumcised men continuing to practice safe sex such as a single partner and condom use. To test for sexual risk a further logistic regression is run using condom use as the dependent variable to determine whether circumcised men engage in riskier sexual behaviour. After controlling for demographic, socio-economic and behavioural determinants of HIV, MC is found to be significant in reducing the probability of being HIV positive in Botswana and Swaziland. In these two countries circumcised men do not appear to engage in riskier sexual behaviour. In Lesotho, despite the high prevalence of MC it does not appear significant in explaining HIV status. This may he explained in part by the fact that circumcised men have a lower probability of using condoms, increasing their risk and negating the effect of MC. Other factors which may explain this relationship in Lesotho is the possibility that traditional circumcision does not remove the entire foreskin and the age at which the circumcision is taking place. All these need to be considered if implementing a large scalp MC programme. DA - 2009 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2009 T1 - HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis TI - HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14808 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/14808
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationWarren KH. HIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysis. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,School of Economics, 2009 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14808en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentSchool of Economicsen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherEconomicsen_ZA
dc.titleHIV and male circumcision in Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho : an econometric analysisen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMComen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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