Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera

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dc.contributor.advisorHaines, Lindaen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorLeask, Kerryen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorElphinstone, Chrisen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHolloway, Jennifer Patriciaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-03T05:29:49Z
dc.date.available2015-01-03T05:29:49Z
dc.date.issued2011en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 88-93).en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThis dissertation comprises a study into the application of count data time series models to weekly counts of cholera cases that have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique. The study specifically looks at two classes of time series models for count data, namely observation-driven and parameter-driven, and two models from each of these classes are investigated. The autoregressive conditional Poisson (ACP) and double autoregressive conditional Poisson (DACP) are considered under the observation-driven class, while the parameter-driven models used are the Poisson-gamma and stochastic autoregressive mean (SAM) model. An in-depth case study of the cholera counts is presented in which the four selected count data time series models are compared. In addition the time series models are compared to static Poisson and negative binomial regression, thereby indicating the benefits gained in using count data time series models when the counts exhibit serial correlation. In the process of comparing the models, the effect of environmental drivers on the outbreaks of cholera are observed and discussed.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationHolloway, J. P. (2011). <i>Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Statistical Sciences. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationHolloway, Jennifer Patricia. <i>"Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Statistical Sciences, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationHolloway, J. 2011. Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Holloway, Jennifer Patricia AB - This dissertation comprises a study into the application of count data time series models to weekly counts of cholera cases that have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique. The study specifically looks at two classes of time series models for count data, namely observation-driven and parameter-driven, and two models from each of these classes are investigated. The autoregressive conditional Poisson (ACP) and double autoregressive conditional Poisson (DACP) are considered under the observation-driven class, while the parameter-driven models used are the Poisson-gamma and stochastic autoregressive mean (SAM) model. An in-depth case study of the cholera counts is presented in which the four selected count data time series models are compared. In addition the time series models are compared to static Poisson and negative binomial regression, thereby indicating the benefits gained in using count data time series models when the counts exhibit serial correlation. In the process of comparing the models, the effect of environmental drivers on the outbreaks of cholera are observed and discussed. DA - 2011 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2011 T1 - Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera TI - Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationHolloway JP. Time series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of cholera. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Statistical Sciences, 2011 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11088en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Statistical Sciencesen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherMathematical Statisticsen_ZA
dc.titleTime series analysis of count data with an application to the incidence of choleraen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMScen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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