Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone
| dc.contributor.advisor | Wolski, Piotr | |
| dc.contributor.author | Setswammung, Thusego Sebastian | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-22T10:12:02Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-22T10:12:02Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2026-07-22T10:10:59Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | Water forms part of critical infrastructure, and this dissertation covers the impacts of projected climate change on water resources. The primary focus is on climate change's effect on the water balance of the Gaborone Dam. Gaborone Dam forms part of the city of Gaborone's (and surroundings - Greater Gaborone) water supply. The motivation for this study is that Botswana is a landlocked country with present water challenges (scarcity) and hence in need of good water governance, especially for its capital city—Gaborone. Given the projected climate and increase in population, especially in the city, water resources are likely to be even more vulnerable than they are presently. The Gaborone Dam has reached critical levels (low volumes) a few times in the past 20 years, and chances of drier conditions remain for the future. Since water is paramount for sustainable development and its insecurity jeopardises the country's sustainable ambitions and could potentially exacerbate societal inequalities, the water security of the country, and especially the city, has to be assessed as is done in this study. The study used multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 and CORDEX Africa with a focus on SSP24.5/SSP5-8.5 and RCP4.5/RCP8.5 future socio-economic development and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, respectively, to assess future rainfall and temperature of the study area—the Gaborone Dam. With historical observed rainfall and temperature values used as a baseline (1991 to 2020), the Gaborone Dam and its catchment's future rainfall and temperature were assessed for near (2031 to 2060) and far (2061 to 2090) future periods. Subsequently, the water balance of the Gaborone Dam was calculated, and a range of possible future water supply deficits were determined. Finally, these results were evaluated in the context of the literature relevant to Gaborone's water security now and in the future. The results indicate that future climate projections encompass a broad range of conditions, suggesting that both increases and decreases in rainfall, and consequently water resources, are possible. Overall, however, coupled with existing literature, there is a higher chance of a decline in available water resources. However, there are uncertainties as this is inherent with modelling future projections—rainfall, temperature and population-driven water demand and use. | |
| dc.identifier.apacitation | Setswammung, T. S. (2026). <i>Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone</i>. (). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.chicagocitation | Setswammung, Thusego Sebastian. <i>"Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone."</i> ., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2026. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.citation | Setswammung, T.S. 2026. Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone. . University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.ris | TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Setswammung, Thusego Sebastian AB - Water forms part of critical infrastructure, and this dissertation covers the impacts of projected climate change on water resources. The primary focus is on climate change's effect on the water balance of the Gaborone Dam. Gaborone Dam forms part of the city of Gaborone's (and surroundings - Greater Gaborone) water supply. The motivation for this study is that Botswana is a landlocked country with present water challenges (scarcity) and hence in need of good water governance, especially for its capital city—Gaborone. Given the projected climate and increase in population, especially in the city, water resources are likely to be even more vulnerable than they are presently. The Gaborone Dam has reached critical levels (low volumes) a few times in the past 20 years, and chances of drier conditions remain for the future. Since water is paramount for sustainable development and its insecurity jeopardises the country's sustainable ambitions and could potentially exacerbate societal inequalities, the water security of the country, and especially the city, has to be assessed as is done in this study. The study used multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 and CORDEX Africa with a focus on SSP24.5/SSP5-8.5 and RCP4.5/RCP8.5 future socio-economic development and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, respectively, to assess future rainfall and temperature of the study area—the Gaborone Dam. With historical observed rainfall and temperature values used as a baseline (1991 to 2020), the Gaborone Dam and its catchment's future rainfall and temperature were assessed for near (2031 to 2060) and far (2061 to 2090) future periods. Subsequently, the water balance of the Gaborone Dam was calculated, and a range of possible future water supply deficits were determined. Finally, these results were evaluated in the context of the literature relevant to Gaborone's water security now and in the future. The results indicate that future climate projections encompass a broad range of conditions, suggesting that both increases and decreases in rainfall, and consequently water resources, are possible. Overall, however, coupled with existing literature, there is a higher chance of a decline in available water resources. However, there are uncertainties as this is inherent with modelling future projections—rainfall, temperature and population-driven water demand and use. DA - 2026 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - climate change KW - water security LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2026 T1 - Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone TI - Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 ER - | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 | |
| dc.identifier.vancouvercitation | Setswammung TS. Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone. []. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2026 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43634 | en_ZA |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.language.rfc3066 | eng | |
| dc.publisher.department | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science | |
| dc.publisher.faculty | Faculty of Science | |
| dc.publisher.institution | University of Cape Town | |
| dc.subject | climate change | |
| dc.subject | water security | |
| dc.title | Assessing the vulnerability of Gaborone Dam to climate change up to the year 2090 for the purpose of water security in the Greater Gaborone | |
| dc.type | Thesis / Dissertation | |
| dc.type.qualificationlevel | Masters | |
| dc.type.qualificationlevel | MSc |