Energy futures modelling for African cities: selecting a modelling tool for the SAMSET project
Journal Article
2014
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Energy Research Centre
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Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
Urbanisation is occurring fastest in developing countries, with the least developed countries expected to have the highest population growth rates between 2010 and 2050 (Madlener and Sunak, 2011). Cities in these countries are going to increasingly be important sites of energy demand and associated emissions. Much of the literature about sustainable urban energy transitions has to date focussed on developed country contexts; as the current sources of greatest emissions, this makes sense. In looking forward, however, if the energy demand and emissions of developing country cities increase to that equivalent of many western cities today, we may be unable to avoid catastrophic climate change. Transitioning energy infrastructures and associated urban systems is a long-term process. In the absence of forward planning, developing country cities run risks of infrastructural and urban planning lock-in to systems that are unsustainable (Olazabal and Pascual, 2013).
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Reference:
Tait, L., McCall, B. & Stone, A. (2014). Energy futures modelling for African cities: selecting a modelling tool for the SAMSET project. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.