How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?

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dc.contributor.advisorCharteris, Ailieen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSwanepoel, Debra-Leeen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-23T06:58:37Z
dc.date.available2018-11-23T06:58:37Z
dc.date.issued2018en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThis paper builds on earlier work in business cycle theory, particularly in the growth cycle tradition of (Lucas, 1976), to analyse business cycles in Africa's Frontier Market Economies (FMEs), which include the following countries: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. This paper extends the work of (Agenor, McDermott, & Prasad, 2000), (Rand & Tarp, 2002) and (R. L. Male, 2009) who have established a set of stylised facts for the fluctuations of business cycles in developing countries, to examine the impact of world shocks on the FMEs through the development of the stylised facts for these economies. This paper goes on to assess the suitability of the stylised facts that have been established for developing countries for Africa's FMEs. This thesis makes an important contribution to the literature, by focussing on Africa's FMEs which are also considered to be the anchors of growth and future development for the continent. In accordance with existing business cycle literature, this study examines the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors on the business cycles of the FMEs, to assess firstly how these factors impact the FMEs business cycles, and secondly whether there are similarities with other developing countries in terms of how these business cycles react to these impacts. The analysis is conducted through the examination of the volatility, persistence and cross-correlation between domestic output (gross domestic product) and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including consumption, fiscal variables, trade variables as well as monetary variables) to establish the stylised facts for the FMEs, which are then compared to the generalised stylised facts established for developing countries. The results indicate that only selected stylised facts for the analysis of business cycles of developing countries are valid for the FMEs, such as the volatility of output, public sector revenue and expenditure, and consumption. However, many aspects of the business cycles of these economies are significantly different to the stylised facts such as the lower than expected volatility of investment, as well as the volatility of exports which is double the expected value. The policy implications of the findings for Africa's FME's are also reflected upon.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationSwanepoel, D. (2018). <i>How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29079en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationSwanepoel, Debra-Lee. <i>"How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29079en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationSwanepoel, D. 2018. How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Swanepoel, Debra-Lee AB - This paper builds on earlier work in business cycle theory, particularly in the growth cycle tradition of (Lucas, 1976), to analyse business cycles in Africa's Frontier Market Economies (FMEs), which include the following countries: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. This paper extends the work of (Agenor, McDermott, & Prasad, 2000), (Rand & Tarp, 2002) and (R. L. Male, 2009) who have established a set of stylised facts for the fluctuations of business cycles in developing countries, to examine the impact of world shocks on the FMEs through the development of the stylised facts for these economies. This paper goes on to assess the suitability of the stylised facts that have been established for developing countries for Africa's FMEs. This thesis makes an important contribution to the literature, by focussing on Africa's FMEs which are also considered to be the anchors of growth and future development for the continent. In accordance with existing business cycle literature, this study examines the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors on the business cycles of the FMEs, to assess firstly how these factors impact the FMEs business cycles, and secondly whether there are similarities with other developing countries in terms of how these business cycles react to these impacts. The analysis is conducted through the examination of the volatility, persistence and cross-correlation between domestic output (gross domestic product) and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including consumption, fiscal variables, trade variables as well as monetary variables) to establish the stylised facts for the FMEs, which are then compared to the generalised stylised facts established for developing countries. The results indicate that only selected stylised facts for the analysis of business cycles of developing countries are valid for the FMEs, such as the volatility of output, public sector revenue and expenditure, and consumption. However, many aspects of the business cycles of these economies are significantly different to the stylised facts such as the lower than expected volatility of investment, as well as the volatility of exports which is double the expected value. The policy implications of the findings for Africa's FME's are also reflected upon. DA - 2018 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2018 T1 - How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies? TI - How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies? UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29079 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/29079
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationSwanepoel D. How have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2018 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29079en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentResearch of GSBen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherDevelopment Financeen_ZA
dc.titleHow have world shocks affected the business cycles of Africa's frontier economies?en_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMComen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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