Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities

dc.contributor.advisorBiekpe, Nicholasen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDe Villiers, Johanen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-02T09:31:27Z
dc.date.available2018-11-02T09:31:27Z
dc.date.issued2015en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThis paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationDe Villiers, J. (2015). <i>Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationDe Villiers, Johan. <i>"Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationDe Villiers, J. 2015. Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - De Villiers, Johan AB - This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities TI - Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationDe Villiers J. Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2015 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentResearch of GSBen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherDevelopment Financeen_ZA
dc.titleSimulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilitiesen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMComen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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