Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network

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dc.contributor.authorMoore, Christineen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCumming, Graeme Sen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSlingsby, Jasperen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGrewar, Johnen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-16T04:10:49Z
dc.date.available2015-11-16T04:10:49Z
dc.date.issued2014en_ZA
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. Conclusions/Significance Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationMoore, C., Cumming, G. S., Slingsby, J., & Grewar, J. (2014). Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. <i>PLoS One</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationMoore, Christine, Graeme S Cumming, Jasper Slingsby, and John Grewar "Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network." <i>PLoS One</i> (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMoore, C., Cumming, G. S., Slingsby, J., & Grewar, J. (2014). Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. PloS one, 9(1). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0086973en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Moore, Christine AU - Cumming, Graeme S AU - Slingsby, Jasper AU - Grewar, John AB - BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. Conclusions/Significance Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0086973 DP - University of Cape Town J1 - PLoS One LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2014 T1 - Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network TI - Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086973
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationMoore C, Cumming GS, Slingsby J, Grewar J. Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. PLoS One. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012.en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentPercy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithologyen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.rightsThis is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the <a href=en_ZA
dc.rights.holder© 2014 Moore et alen_ZA
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_ZA
dc.sourcePLoS Oneen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosoneen_ZA
dc.subject.otherOstrichesen_ZA
dc.subject.otherBirdsen_ZA
dc.subject.otherNetwork analysisen_ZA
dc.subject.otherAvian influenzaen_ZA
dc.subject.otherSeasonal variationsen_ZA
dc.subject.otherVeterinary diseasesen_ZA
dc.titleTracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production networken_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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