West coast rock lobster projections to 2021 under the current TAC 2016 levels
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2017-01
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
The SWG TAC recommendations for the next five years corresponded to reducing the previous recovery target by 2021 compared to 2006 from a 35% increase down to about a 7% decrease in median terms. The final DAFF decision was to leave the TAC for 2016 unchanged. If this current DAFF TAC is maintained for the next five years, a drop to 85% of the 2006 abundance by 2021 in median terms is indicated, with this decrease being to 35% at the lower 5%-ile. Approximate projections concerning Exceptional Circumstances suggest that A56 and A7 will remain above their EC thresholds, but that A34 and A8+ will exceed them by marginal amounts only, and A12 will quickly drop below the EC threshold for that super-area.
oug Butterworth, head of Department of MARAM at UCT, wrote to Kim Prochazka from Fisheries Branch, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries asking for permission to make research and reports prepared with MARAM in collaboration with DAFF to be made available on UCT’s institutional repository, OpenUCT on 23-04-2016 and to use Creative Commons license (CC-BY) on the documents. Permission was granted on 09-09-2016. An email from Kim Prochazka, Fisheries Branch, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries granted MARAM, a department at the University of Cape Town, permission to make research reports prepared with MARAM in collaboration with DAFF to be made available on UCT’s institutional repository, OpenUCT on 23-04-2016 and use Creative Commons license (CC-BY) on the documents.
oug Butterworth, head of Department of MARAM at UCT, wrote to Kim Prochazka from Fisheries Branch, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries asking for permission to make research and reports prepared with MARAM in collaboration with DAFF to be made available on UCT’s institutional repository, OpenUCT on 23-04-2016 and to use Creative Commons license (CC-BY) on the documents. Permission was granted on 09-09-2016. An email from Kim Prochazka, Fisheries Branch, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries granted MARAM, a department at the University of Cape Town, permission to make research reports prepared with MARAM in collaboration with DAFF to be made available on UCT’s institutional repository, OpenUCT on 23-04-2016 and use Creative Commons license (CC-BY) on the documents.
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Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. 2017. West coast rock lobster projections to 2021 under the current TAC 2016 levels. DAFF Branch Fisheries document: FISHERES/2017/JAN/SWG-WCRL/01: 6pp.