A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorBlamey, Ross
dc.contributor.authorMiddleton, C
dc.contributor.authorLennard, C
dc.contributor.authorReason, Chris
dc.coverage.spatialSouth Africaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-12T13:09:21Z
dc.date.available2017-06-12T13:09:21Z
dc.date.issued2016-11-15
dc.description.abstractSevere thunderstorms pose a considerable risk to society and the economy of South Africa during the austral summer months (October–March). Yet, the frequency and distribution of such severe storms is poorly understood, which partly stems out of an inadequate observation network. Given the lack of observations, alternative methods have focused on the relationship between severe storms and their associated environments. One such approach is to use a combination of covariant discriminants, derived from gridded datasets, as a probabilistic proxy for the development of severe storms. These covariates describe some key ingredient for severe convective storm development, such as the presence of instability. Using a combination of convective available potential energy and deep-layer vertical shear from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, this study establishes a climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa for the period 1979–2010. Results indicate that early austral summer months are most likely associated with conditions that are conducive to the development of severe storms over the interior of South Africa. The east coast of the country is a hotspot for potential severe convective environments throughout the summer months. This is likely due to the close proximity of the Agulhas Current, which produces high latent heat fluxes and acts as a key moisture source. No obvious relationship is established between the frequency of potential severe convective environments and the main large-scale modes of variability in the Southern Hemisphere, such as ENSO. This implies that several factors, possibly more localised, may modulate the spatial and temporal frequency of severe thunderstorms across the region.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationBlamey, R., Middleton, C., Lennard, C., & Reason, C. (2016). A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa. <i>Climate Dynamics</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/24563en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationBlamey, Ross, C Middleton, C Lennard, and Chris Reason "A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa." <i>Climate Dynamics</i> (2016) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/24563en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationBlamey RC, Middleton C, Lennard C, Reason CJC. Clim Dyn (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3434-7en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Blamey, Ross AU - Middleton, C AU - Lennard, C AU - Reason, Chris AB - Severe thunderstorms pose a considerable risk to society and the economy of South Africa during the austral summer months (October–March). Yet, the frequency and distribution of such severe storms is poorly understood, which partly stems out of an inadequate observation network. Given the lack of observations, alternative methods have focused on the relationship between severe storms and their associated environments. One such approach is to use a combination of covariant discriminants, derived from gridded datasets, as a probabilistic proxy for the development of severe storms. These covariates describe some key ingredient for severe convective storm development, such as the presence of instability. Using a combination of convective available potential energy and deep-layer vertical shear from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, this study establishes a climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa for the period 1979–2010. Results indicate that early austral summer months are most likely associated with conditions that are conducive to the development of severe storms over the interior of South Africa. The east coast of the country is a hotspot for potential severe convective environments throughout the summer months. This is likely due to the close proximity of the Agulhas Current, which produces high latent heat fluxes and acts as a key moisture source. No obvious relationship is established between the frequency of potential severe convective environments and the main large-scale modes of variability in the Southern Hemisphere, such as ENSO. This implies that several factors, possibly more localised, may modulate the spatial and temporal frequency of severe thunderstorms across the region. DA - 2016-11-15 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - Climate Dynamics LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2016 SM - 0930-7575 T1 - A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa TI - A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/24563 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/24563
dc.identifier.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3434-7
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationBlamey R, Middleton C, Lennard C, Reason C. A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa. Climate Dynamics. 2016; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/24563.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherSpringer Verlagen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Oceanographyen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceClimate Dynamicsen_ZA
dc.source.urihttps://link.springer.com/journal/382
dc.subject.otherclimate
dc.subject.otherstorms
dc.subject.otherSouth Africa
dc.titleA climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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